Recent forecast updates from global models like the ECMWF and GFS, alongside regional guidance from China's meteorological services, point to a stable high-pressure ridge over Beijing keeping minimum temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius for August 26. Ensemble spreads cluster around 21–23°C, driven by modest variability in overnight cloud cover, wind patterns, and urban heat retention rather than major synoptic shifts. These conditions align with typical late-August climatology while incorporating current moisture and pressure trends, explaining the tight market distribution across adjacent outcomes and the limited odds on extremes below 20°C or above 24°C. Next model cycles and observational data will further narrow resolution criteria based on official station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 26?
21°C 31%
23°C 27%
22°C 25%
20°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
4%
18°C
9%
19°C
13%
20°C
22%
21°C
31%
22°C
25%
23°C
27%
24°C
16%
25°C
9%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
6%
21°C 31%
23°C 27%
22°C 25%
20°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
$135 Vol.
4%
18°C
$36 Vol.
9%
19°C
$0 Vol.
13%
20°C
$0 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
31%
22°C
$0 Vol.
25%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
16%
25°C
$46 Vol.
9%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$15 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast updates from global models like the ECMWF and GFS, alongside regional guidance from China's meteorological services, point to a stable high-pressure ridge over Beijing keeping minimum temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius for August 26. Ensemble spreads cluster around 21–23°C, driven by modest variability in overnight cloud cover, wind patterns, and urban heat retention rather than major synoptic shifts. These conditions align with typical late-August climatology while incorporating current moisture and pressure trends, explaining the tight market distribution across adjacent outcomes and the limited odds on extremes below 20°C or above 24°C. Next model cycles and observational data will further narrow resolution criteria based on official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$232End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast updates from global models like the ECMWF and GFS, alongside regional guidance from China's meteorological services, point to a stable high-pressure ridge over Beijing keeping minimum temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius for August 26. Ensemble spreads cluster around 21–23°C, driven by modest variability in overnight cloud cover, wind patterns, and urban heat retention rather than major synoptic shifts. These conditions align with typical late-August climatology while incorporating current moisture and pressure trends, explaining the tight market distribution across adjacent outcomes and the limited odds on extremes below 20°C or above 24°C. Next model cycles and observational data will further narrow resolution criteria based on official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$232End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast updates from global models like the ECMWF and GFS, alongside regional guidance from China's meteorological services, point to a stable high-pressure ridge over Beijing keeping minimum temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius for August 26. Ensemble spreads cluster around 21–23°C, driven by modest variability in overnight cloud cover, wind patterns, and urban heat retention rather than major synoptic shifts. These conditions align with typical late-August climatology while incorporating current moisture and pressure trends, explaining the tight market distribution across adjacent outcomes and the limited odds on extremes below 20°C or above 24°C. Next model cycles and observational data will further narrow resolution criteria based on official station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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