Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies position the 25°C minimum as the leading outcome for Beijing on August 25, driven by models showing overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and limited moisture. Trader consensus around this level reflects typical late-August climatology, where urban heat island effects and average lows near 21–23°C are moderated by potential thundershowers that could suppress further drops. Shifts in ensemble guidance toward slightly warmer readings over the past 48 hours, amid stable high pressure and no strong cold advection, have elevated implied probabilities for 23–25°C bins while keeping sub-22°C outcomes low. Upcoming official China Meteorological Administration updates and real-time observations will refine resolution criteria based on the day's recorded low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
24°C 51%
23°C 34%
22°C 14%
21°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
8%
23°C
34%
24°C
27%
25°C
61%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
24°C 51%
23°C 34%
22°C 14%
21°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$80 Vol.
1%
22°C
$103 Vol.
8%
23°C
$0 Vol.
34%
24°C
$4 Vol.
27%
25°C
$63 Vol.
61%
26°C
$428 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$937 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$493 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,512 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$614 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies position the 25°C minimum as the leading outcome for Beijing on August 25, driven by models showing overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and limited moisture. Trader consensus around this level reflects typical late-August climatology, where urban heat island effects and average lows near 21–23°C are moderated by potential thundershowers that could suppress further drops. Shifts in ensemble guidance toward slightly warmer readings over the past 48 hours, amid stable high pressure and no strong cold advection, have elevated implied probabilities for 23–25°C bins while keeping sub-22°C outcomes low. Upcoming official China Meteorological Administration updates and real-time observations will refine resolution criteria based on the day's recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,374End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies position the 25°C minimum as the leading outcome for Beijing on August 25, driven by models showing overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and limited moisture. Trader consensus around this level reflects typical late-August climatology, where urban heat island effects and average lows near 21–23°C are moderated by potential thundershowers that could suppress further drops. Shifts in ensemble guidance toward slightly warmer readings over the past 48 hours, amid stable high pressure and no strong cold advection, have elevated implied probabilities for 23–25°C bins while keeping sub-22°C outcomes low. Upcoming official China Meteorological Administration updates and real-time observations will refine resolution criteria based on the day's recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,374End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies position the 25°C minimum as the leading outcome for Beijing on August 25, driven by models showing overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and limited moisture. Trader consensus around this level reflects typical late-August climatology, where urban heat island effects and average lows near 21–23°C are moderated by potential thundershowers that could suppress further drops. Shifts in ensemble guidance toward slightly warmer readings over the past 48 hours, amid stable high pressure and no strong cold advection, have elevated implied probabilities for 23–25°C bins while keeping sub-22°C outcomes low. Upcoming official China Meteorological Administration updates and real-time observations will refine resolution criteria based on the day's recorded low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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