National Weather Service forecasts for Austin on August 26 indicate sunny, hot conditions with a high near 104–105°F, driven by a persistent Central Texas heatwave featuring southwesterly flow and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. This aligns with the market's leading 104–105°F outcome at 51.5% implied probability, as recent observations show daily maxima consistently in the low-to-mid 100s amid above-normal August temperatures. Model consensus supports limited variability, though slight shifts in steering patterns or afternoon convection could influence exact peaks relative to the official Camp Mabry station measurement. Traders appear to weigh these official guidance and historical late-summer climatology heavily.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 26?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 26?
104-105°F 43%
102-103°F 39%
106-107°F 19%
108-109°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
95°F or below
2%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
2%
100-101°F
8%
102-103°F
39%
104-105°F
43%
106-107°F
19%
108-109°F
14%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 43%
102-103°F 39%
106-107°F 19%
108-109°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
95°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$15 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$280 Vol.
2%
100-101°F
$20 Vol.
8%
102-103°F
$139 Vol.
39%
104-105°F
$165 Vol.
43%
106-107°F
$67 Vol.
19%
108-109°F
$5 Vol.
14%
110-111°F
$20 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$15 Vol.
<1%
114°F or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for Austin on August 26 indicate sunny, hot conditions with a high near 104–105°F, driven by a persistent Central Texas heatwave featuring southwesterly flow and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. This aligns with the market's leading 104–105°F outcome at 51.5% implied probability, as recent observations show daily maxima consistently in the low-to-mid 100s amid above-normal August temperatures. Model consensus supports limited variability, though slight shifts in steering patterns or afternoon convection could influence exact peaks relative to the official Camp Mabry station measurement. Traders appear to weigh these official guidance and historical late-summer climatology heavily.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$411End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for Austin on August 26 indicate sunny, hot conditions with a high near 104–105°F, driven by a persistent Central Texas heatwave featuring southwesterly flow and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. This aligns with the market's leading 104–105°F outcome at 51.5% implied probability, as recent observations show daily maxima consistently in the low-to-mid 100s amid above-normal August temperatures. Model consensus supports limited variability, though slight shifts in steering patterns or afternoon convection could influence exact peaks relative to the official Camp Mabry station measurement. Traders appear to weigh these official guidance and historical late-summer climatology heavily.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$411End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for Austin on August 26 indicate sunny, hot conditions with a high near 104–105°F, driven by a persistent Central Texas heatwave featuring southwesterly flow and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. This aligns with the market's leading 104–105°F outcome at 51.5% implied probability, as recent observations show daily maxima consistently in the low-to-mid 100s amid above-normal August temperatures. Model consensus supports limited variability, though slight shifts in steering patterns or afternoon convection could influence exact peaks relative to the official Camp Mabry station measurement. Traders appear to weigh these official guidance and historical late-summer climatology heavily.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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