**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and a cooler maritime air mass are capping daytime heating in Munich on August 25, 2026, keeping the daily maximum temperature tightly clustered in the 18–21 °C range.** Official and model guidance (GFS, ICON, and local forecasts) consistently point to a high near 19–21 °C (roughly 66–70 °F), with the market-implied probabilities reflecting that narrow window: 20 °C leads at 24 %, followed closely by 19 °C (23.5 %) and 18 °C (17.6 %). Key drivers include widespread stratiform and convective cloud that reduces incoming solar radiation, combined with light-to-moderate northwest-to-west winds advecting milder Atlantic air. Morning showers and ongoing drizzle further suppress temperatures through evaporative cooling and high humidity (often 70–85 %). These conditions contrast with the clearer, warmer afternoon on August 24, when readings reached the mid-20s °C. Model consensus shows only modest afternoon clearing possible late in the day, limiting the upside potential for 22 °C or higher (combined ~18 %). The tight spread between the top three outcomes underscores genuine forecast uncertainty around exact timing of any breaks in the cloud deck and the precise peak hour, rather than any single dramatic shift. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes within the meteorologically supported 18–21 °C envelope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 25?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 25?
20°C 24%
19°C 24%
18°C 17.1%
21°C 12%
NEW
$55,957 Vol.
NEW
$55,957 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
10%
18°C
17%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
12%
22°C
9%
23°C or higher
9%
20°C 24%
19°C 24%
18°C 17.1%
21°C 12%
NEW
$55,957 Vol.
NEW
$55,957 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
13°C or below
$99 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$99 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,366 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$3,981 Vol.
2%
17°C
$3,775 Vol.
10%
18°C
$4,735 Vol.
17%
19°C
$7,025 Vol.
24%
20°C
$8,236 Vol.
24%
21°C
$6,315 Vol.
12%
22°C
$9,080 Vol.
9%
23°C or higher
$10,245 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and a cooler maritime air mass are capping daytime heating in Munich on August 25, 2026, keeping the daily maximum temperature tightly clustered in the 18–21 °C range.** Official and model guidance (GFS, ICON, and local forecasts) consistently point to a high near 19–21 °C (roughly 66–70 °F), with the market-implied probabilities reflecting that narrow window: 20 °C leads at 24 %, followed closely by 19 °C (23.5 %) and 18 °C (17.6 %).
Key drivers include widespread stratiform and convective cloud that reduces incoming solar radiation, combined with light-to-moderate northwest-to-west winds advecting milder Atlantic air. Morning showers and ongoing drizzle further suppress temperatures through evaporative cooling and high humidity (often 70–85 %). These conditions contrast with the clearer, warmer afternoon on August 24, when readings reached the mid-20s °C.
Model consensus shows only modest afternoon clearing possible late in the day, limiting the upside potential for 22 °C or higher (combined ~18 %). The tight spread between the top three outcomes underscores genuine forecast uncertainty around exact timing of any breaks in the cloud deck and the precise peak hour, rather than any single dramatic shift. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes within the meteorologically supported 18–21 °C envelope.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$55,957End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and a cooler maritime air mass are capping daytime heating in Munich on August 25, 2026, keeping the daily maximum temperature tightly clustered in the 18–21 °C range.** Official and model guidance (GFS, ICON, and local forecasts) consistently point to a high near 19–21 °C (roughly 66–70 °F), with the market-implied probabilities reflecting that narrow window: 20 °C leads at 24 %, followed closely by 19 °C (23.5 %) and 18 °C (17.6 %).
Key drivers include widespread stratiform and convective cloud that reduces incoming solar radiation, combined with light-to-moderate northwest-to-west winds advecting milder Atlantic air. Morning showers and ongoing drizzle further suppress temperatures through evaporative cooling and high humidity (often 70–85 %). These conditions contrast with the clearer, warmer afternoon on August 24, when readings reached the mid-20s °C.
Model consensus shows only modest afternoon clearing possible late in the day, limiting the upside potential for 22 °C or higher (combined ~18 %). The tight spread between the top three outcomes underscores genuine forecast uncertainty around exact timing of any breaks in the cloud deck and the precise peak hour, rather than any single dramatic shift. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes within the meteorologically supported 18–21 °C envelope.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$55,957End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and a cooler maritime air mass are capping daytime heating in Munich on August 25, 2026, keeping the daily maximum temperature tightly clustered in the 18–21 °C range.** Official and model guidance (GFS, ICON, and local forecasts) consistently point to a high near 19–21 °C (roughly 66–70 °F), with the market-implied probabilities reflecting that narrow window: 20 °C leads at 24 %, followed closely by 19 °C (23.5 %) and 18 °C (17.6 %). Key drivers include widespread stratiform and convective cloud that reduces incoming solar radiation, combined with light-to-moderate northwest-to-west winds advecting milder Atlantic air. Morning showers and ongoing drizzle further suppress temperatures through evaporative cooling and high humidity (often 70–85 %). These conditions contrast with the clearer, warmer afternoon on August 24, when readings reached the mid-20s °C. Model consensus shows only modest afternoon clearing possible late in the day, limiting the upside potential for 22 °C or higher (combined ~18 %). The tight spread between the top three outcomes underscores genuine forecast uncertainty around exact timing of any breaks in the cloud deck and the precise peak hour, rather than any single dramatic shift. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes within the meteorologically supported 18–21 °C envelope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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