Recent ensemble forecasts from European models indicate Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 26 will likely fall in the 23–26°C range, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing increased cloud cover and isolated showers that moderate daytime heating. Key variables include the timing and intensity of any convective activity, which could suppress peaks by 1–2°C, alongside southerly flow potentially advecting slightly warmer air masses. Model consensus shows moderate spread due to uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, consistent with the market's broad distribution favoring 24–26°C outcomes while assigning low probability to extremes above 28°C or below 23°C. Updated guidance from national meteorological services will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 26?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 26?
25°C 36%
26°C 23%
24°C 21%
27°C 8%
NEW
$14,750 Vol.
NEW
$14,750 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
7%
24°C
21%
25°C
36%
26°C
23%
27°C
8%
28°C
3%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 36%
26°C 23%
24°C 21%
27°C 8%
NEW
$14,750 Vol.
NEW
$14,750 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
20°C or below
$34 Vol.
1%
21°C
$10 Vol.
1%
22°C
$824 Vol.
3%
23°C
$1,975 Vol.
7%
24°C
$6,415 Vol.
21%
25°C
$1,203 Vol.
36%
26°C
$2,749 Vol.
23%
27°C
$670 Vol.
8%
28°C
$104 Vol.
3%
29°C
$386 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$380 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European models indicate Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 26 will likely fall in the 23–26°C range, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing increased cloud cover and isolated showers that moderate daytime heating. Key variables include the timing and intensity of any convective activity, which could suppress peaks by 1–2°C, alongside southerly flow potentially advecting slightly warmer air masses. Model consensus shows moderate spread due to uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, consistent with the market's broad distribution favoring 24–26°C outcomes while assigning low probability to extremes above 28°C or below 23°C. Updated guidance from national meteorological services will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$14,750End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European models indicate Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 26 will likely fall in the 23–26°C range, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing increased cloud cover and isolated showers that moderate daytime heating. Key variables include the timing and intensity of any convective activity, which could suppress peaks by 1–2°C, alongside southerly flow potentially advecting slightly warmer air masses. Model consensus shows moderate spread due to uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, consistent with the market's broad distribution favoring 24–26°C outcomes while assigning low probability to extremes above 28°C or below 23°C. Updated guidance from national meteorological services will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,750End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from European models indicate Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 26 will likely fall in the 23–26°C range, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing increased cloud cover and isolated showers that moderate daytime heating. Key variables include the timing and intensity of any convective activity, which could suppress peaks by 1–2°C, alongside southerly flow potentially advecting slightly warmer air masses. Model consensus shows moderate spread due to uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, consistent with the market's broad distribution favoring 24–26°C outcomes while assigning low probability to extremes above 28°C or below 23°C. Updated guidance from national meteorological services will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions