Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a high of 25°C in Amsterdam on August 25 under clear skies and easterly flow, driving the 61.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Stable high pressure and dry continental air limit cloud cover and moisture, allowing efficient daytime solar heating without excessive warmth, while seasonal norms and moderate winds near 10-15 mph temper peaks around the historical average. Forecasts show tight clustering between 24-26°C, aligning with the combined 102% probability on those three bins, though minor model variations in timing or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact maximum observed at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 25?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 25?
25°C 63%
26°C 21%
24°C 17%
23°C 2%
NEW
$11,192 Vol.
NEW
$11,192 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
17%
25°C
63%
26°C
21%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 63%
26°C 21%
24°C 17%
23°C 2%
NEW
$11,192 Vol.
NEW
$11,192 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
$204 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$723 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$998 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,748 Vol.
2%
24°C
$2,024 Vol.
17%
25°C
$2,019 Vol.
63%
26°C
$1,479 Vol.
21%
27°C
$748 Vol.
1%
28°C
$375 Vol.
1%
29°C
$746 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$298 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a high of 25°C in Amsterdam on August 25 under clear skies and easterly flow, driving the 61.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Stable high pressure and dry continental air limit cloud cover and moisture, allowing efficient daytime solar heating without excessive warmth, while seasonal norms and moderate winds near 10-15 mph temper peaks around the historical average. Forecasts show tight clustering between 24-26°C, aligning with the combined 102% probability on those three bins, though minor model variations in timing or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact maximum observed at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$11,192End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a high of 25°C in Amsterdam on August 25 under clear skies and easterly flow, driving the 61.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Stable high pressure and dry continental air limit cloud cover and moisture, allowing efficient daytime solar heating without excessive warmth, while seasonal norms and moderate winds near 10-15 mph temper peaks around the historical average. Forecasts show tight clustering between 24-26°C, aligning with the combined 102% probability on those three bins, though minor model variations in timing or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact maximum observed at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,192End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a high of 25°C in Amsterdam on August 25 under clear skies and easterly flow, driving the 61.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Stable high pressure and dry continental air limit cloud cover and moisture, allowing efficient daytime solar heating without excessive warmth, while seasonal norms and moderate winds near 10-15 mph temper peaks around the historical average. Forecasts show tight clustering between 24-26°C, aligning with the combined 102% probability on those three bins, though minor model variations in timing or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact maximum observed at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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