Clear skies and light easterly winds are promoting radiative cooling overnight into August 25, 2026, driving the minimum temperature in Amsterdam toward the 12–13 °C range according to multiple forecast models. Hourly guidance shows readings falling to 12–14 °C between 4–7 a.m. local time under dry, stable conditions with dew points near 11 °C, consistent with late-August climatology when nocturnal drops of 10–12 °C below daytime maxima are common. Recent observations confirm the pattern, with the prior night’s low reaching 9.3 °C amid similar high-pressure influence. Traders have concentrated implied probability on the 13 °C (55.5 %) and 12 °C (37 %) bins, reflecting model consensus for the precise overnight minimum while assigning only modest odds to 11 °C or 14 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 25?
12°C 37%
15°C 34%
14°C 28%
11°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
4%
11°C
14%
12°C
37%
13°C
55%
14°C
28%
15°C
34%
16°C
2%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
12°C 37%
15°C 34%
14°C 28%
11°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
$236 Vol.
1%
10°C
$150 Vol.
4%
11°C
$187 Vol.
14%
12°C
$2 Vol.
37%
13°C
$30 Vol.
55%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
34%
16°C
$40 Vol.
2%
17°C
$229 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$725 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$320 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light easterly winds are promoting radiative cooling overnight into August 25, 2026, driving the minimum temperature in Amsterdam toward the 12–13 °C range according to multiple forecast models. Hourly guidance shows readings falling to 12–14 °C between 4–7 a.m. local time under dry, stable conditions with dew points near 11 °C, consistent with late-August climatology when nocturnal drops of 10–12 °C below daytime maxima are common. Recent observations confirm the pattern, with the prior night’s low reaching 9.3 °C amid similar high-pressure influence. Traders have concentrated implied probability on the 13 °C (55.5 %) and 12 °C (37 %) bins, reflecting model consensus for the precise overnight minimum while assigning only modest odds to 11 °C or 14 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,919End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light easterly winds are promoting radiative cooling overnight into August 25, 2026, driving the minimum temperature in Amsterdam toward the 12–13 °C range according to multiple forecast models. Hourly guidance shows readings falling to 12–14 °C between 4–7 a.m. local time under dry, stable conditions with dew points near 11 °C, consistent with late-August climatology when nocturnal drops of 10–12 °C below daytime maxima are common. Recent observations confirm the pattern, with the prior night’s low reaching 9.3 °C amid similar high-pressure influence. Traders have concentrated implied probability on the 13 °C (55.5 %) and 12 °C (37 %) bins, reflecting model consensus for the precise overnight minimum while assigning only modest odds to 11 °C or 14 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,919End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear skies and light easterly winds are promoting radiative cooling overnight into August 25, 2026, driving the minimum temperature in Amsterdam toward the 12–13 °C range according to multiple forecast models. Hourly guidance shows readings falling to 12–14 °C between 4–7 a.m. local time under dry, stable conditions with dew points near 11 °C, consistent with late-August climatology when nocturnal drops of 10–12 °C below daytime maxima are common. Recent observations confirm the pattern, with the prior night’s low reaching 9.3 °C amid similar high-pressure influence. Traders have concentrated implied probability on the 13 °C (55.5 %) and 12 °C (37 %) bins, reflecting model consensus for the precise overnight minimum while assigning only modest odds to 11 °C or 14 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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