Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a peak temperature of 29–30°C in Istanbul on August 26 under mostly sunny skies and moderate northeasterly winds, consistent with typical late-August conditions driven by high pressure and regional Etesian flow. These factors support strong daytime heating but also introduce some variability from cloud cover or wind shifts that could cap the daily maximum near 27–28°C. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 27°C and 28°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and historical August highs averaging around 28°C, with only modest probability assigned to 29°C or higher given the potential for slight cooling influences. Updated model runs and official agency guidance in the next 24 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 26?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 26?
27°C 48%
28°C 34%
26°C 12%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
12%
27°C
48%
28°C
34%
29°C
7%
30°C
3%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 48%
28°C 34%
26°C 12%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
23°C or below
$180 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$42 Vol.
1%
25°C
$222 Vol.
4%
26°C
$432 Vol.
12%
27°C
$643 Vol.
48%
28°C
$258 Vol.
34%
29°C
$107 Vol.
7%
30°C
$169 Vol.
3%
31°C
$473 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$34 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$300 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a peak temperature of 29–30°C in Istanbul on August 26 under mostly sunny skies and moderate northeasterly winds, consistent with typical late-August conditions driven by high pressure and regional Etesian flow. These factors support strong daytime heating but also introduce some variability from cloud cover or wind shifts that could cap the daily maximum near 27–28°C. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 27°C and 28°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and historical August highs averaging around 28°C, with only modest probability assigned to 29°C or higher given the potential for slight cooling influences. Updated model runs and official agency guidance in the next 24 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,860End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a peak temperature of 29–30°C in Istanbul on August 26 under mostly sunny skies and moderate northeasterly winds, consistent with typical late-August conditions driven by high pressure and regional Etesian flow. These factors support strong daytime heating but also introduce some variability from cloud cover or wind shifts that could cap the daily maximum near 27–28°C. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 27°C and 28°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and historical August highs averaging around 28°C, with only modest probability assigned to 29°C or higher given the potential for slight cooling influences. Updated model runs and official agency guidance in the next 24 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,860End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a peak temperature of 29–30°C in Istanbul on August 26 under mostly sunny skies and moderate northeasterly winds, consistent with typical late-August conditions driven by high pressure and regional Etesian flow. These factors support strong daytime heating but also introduce some variability from cloud cover or wind shifts that could cap the daily maximum near 27–28°C. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 27°C and 28°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and historical August highs averaging around 28°C, with only modest probability assigned to 29°C or higher given the potential for slight cooling influences. Updated model runs and official agency guidance in the next 24 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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