Persistent high pressure and light northerly winds over Istanbul are anchoring short-range model consensus around a 28–29°C peak for August 25, consistent with late-summer climatology of 28–29°C. Marine moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with typical afternoon sea-breeze development, frequently caps afternoon maxima one to two degrees below inland projections, positioning 28°C as the modal outcome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover the main variables that could nudge readings to 29–30°C; recent model runs have reinforced this narrow range ahead of official verification. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 28°C while keeping 27°C and 29°C as live alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 25?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 25?
28°C 62%
27°C 19%
29°C 16%
30°C 1.7%
NEW
$17,906 Vol.
NEW
$17,906 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
19%
28°C
62%
29°C
16%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 62%
27°C 19%
29°C 16%
30°C 1.7%
NEW
$17,906 Vol.
NEW
$17,906 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$354 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$345 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$308 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$818 Vol.
1%
27°C
$2,185 Vol.
19%
28°C
$3,746 Vol.
62%
29°C
$982 Vol.
16%
30°C
$1,320 Vol.
2%
31°C
$1,628 Vol.
1%
32°C
$1,484 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$5,005 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and light northerly winds over Istanbul are anchoring short-range model consensus around a 28–29°C peak for August 25, consistent with late-summer climatology of 28–29°C. Marine moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with typical afternoon sea-breeze development, frequently caps afternoon maxima one to two degrees below inland projections, positioning 28°C as the modal outcome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover the main variables that could nudge readings to 29–30°C; recent model runs have reinforced this narrow range ahead of official verification. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 28°C while keeping 27°C and 29°C as live alternatives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$17,906End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and light northerly winds over Istanbul are anchoring short-range model consensus around a 28–29°C peak for August 25, consistent with late-summer climatology of 28–29°C. Marine moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with typical afternoon sea-breeze development, frequently caps afternoon maxima one to two degrees below inland projections, positioning 28°C as the modal outcome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover the main variables that could nudge readings to 29–30°C; recent model runs have reinforced this narrow range ahead of official verification. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 28°C while keeping 27°C and 29°C as live alternatives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,906End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and light northerly winds over Istanbul are anchoring short-range model consensus around a 28–29°C peak for August 25, consistent with late-summer climatology of 28–29°C. Marine moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with typical afternoon sea-breeze development, frequently caps afternoon maxima one to two degrees below inland projections, positioning 28°C as the modal outcome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover the main variables that could nudge readings to 29–30°C; recent model runs have reinforced this narrow range ahead of official verification. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 28°C while keeping 27°C and 29°C as live alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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