Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate a cold front approaching Chicago on August 26, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon amid southwest winds gusting to 25 mph, followed by partial clearing overnight. This setup creates uncertainty in the daily minimum temperature, as model runs differ on the extent of post-frontal cooling and dew point suppression versus lingering moisture. Official guidance places the low in the upper 60s, but variations in frontal timing and convective outflow could shift it several degrees either way. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 60-71°F, traders weigh ensemble spread in short-range models against climatological August overnight norms near 65°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 26?
58-59°F 50%
74°F or higher 49%
55°F or below 36%
66-67°F 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
55°F or below
36%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
50%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
25%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
31%
68-69°F
29%
70-71°F
26%
72-73°F
2%
74°F or higher
49%
58-59°F 50%
74°F or higher 49%
55°F or below 36%
66-67°F 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
55°F or below
$5 Vol.
36%
56-57°F
$5 Vol.
8%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
50%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
26%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
25%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
25%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
31%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
29%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
26%
72-73°F
$5 Vol.
2%
74°F or higher
$5 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate a cold front approaching Chicago on August 26, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon amid southwest winds gusting to 25 mph, followed by partial clearing overnight. This setup creates uncertainty in the daily minimum temperature, as model runs differ on the extent of post-frontal cooling and dew point suppression versus lingering moisture. Official guidance places the low in the upper 60s, but variations in frontal timing and convective outflow could shift it several degrees either way. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 60-71°F, traders weigh ensemble spread in short-range models against climatological August overnight norms near 65°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate a cold front approaching Chicago on August 26, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon amid southwest winds gusting to 25 mph, followed by partial clearing overnight. This setup creates uncertainty in the daily minimum temperature, as model runs differ on the extent of post-frontal cooling and dew point suppression versus lingering moisture. Official guidance places the low in the upper 60s, but variations in frontal timing and convective outflow could shift it several degrees either way. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 60-71°F, traders weigh ensemble spread in short-range models against climatological August overnight norms near 65°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate a cold front approaching Chicago on August 26, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon amid southwest winds gusting to 25 mph, followed by partial clearing overnight. This setup creates uncertainty in the daily minimum temperature, as model runs differ on the extent of post-frontal cooling and dew point suppression versus lingering moisture. Official guidance places the low in the upper 60s, but variations in frontal timing and convective outflow could shift it several degrees either way. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 60-71°F, traders weigh ensemble spread in short-range models against climatological August overnight norms near 65°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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