Persistent marine layer stratus and onshore sea breezes from Pacific upwelling typically cap San Francisco highs near the August climatological average of 67–70°F at KSFO, yet current NWS and model guidance point to partial clearing and slightly warmer conditions for August 26. This supports the market’s tight clustering around 74–75°F (31.5%) and 76–77°F (22.5%), reflecting trader assessment of modest warming potential versus the usual cool advection. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any marine layer erosion, afternoon wind speeds, and subtle high-pressure influences that could allow brief inland heating before the next onshore surge. Official forecasts remain near 70–74°F with acknowledged uncertainty from model spread on boundary-layer mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 26?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 26?
74-75°F 25%
76-77°F 23%
78-79°F 19%
72-73°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
69°F or below
5%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
25%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
1%
74-75°F 25%
76-77°F 23%
78-79°F 19%
72-73°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
69°F or below
$5 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$10 Vol.
6%
72-73°F
$33 Vol.
16%
74-75°F
$66 Vol.
25%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$242 Vol.
16%
82-83°F
$58 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$5 Vol.
3%
86-87°F
$65 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer stratus and onshore sea breezes from Pacific upwelling typically cap San Francisco highs near the August climatological average of 67–70°F at KSFO, yet current NWS and model guidance point to partial clearing and slightly warmer conditions for August 26. This supports the market’s tight clustering around 74–75°F (31.5%) and 76–77°F (22.5%), reflecting trader assessment of modest warming potential versus the usual cool advection. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any marine layer erosion, afternoon wind speeds, and subtle high-pressure influences that could allow brief inland heating before the next onshore surge. Official forecasts remain near 70–74°F with acknowledged uncertainty from model spread on boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$489End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer stratus and onshore sea breezes from Pacific upwelling typically cap San Francisco highs near the August climatological average of 67–70°F at KSFO, yet current NWS and model guidance point to partial clearing and slightly warmer conditions for August 26. This supports the market’s tight clustering around 74–75°F (31.5%) and 76–77°F (22.5%), reflecting trader assessment of modest warming potential versus the usual cool advection. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any marine layer erosion, afternoon wind speeds, and subtle high-pressure influences that could allow brief inland heating before the next onshore surge. Official forecasts remain near 70–74°F with acknowledged uncertainty from model spread on boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$489End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent marine layer stratus and onshore sea breezes from Pacific upwelling typically cap San Francisco highs near the August climatological average of 67–70°F at KSFO, yet current NWS and model guidance point to partial clearing and slightly warmer conditions for August 26. This supports the market’s tight clustering around 74–75°F (31.5%) and 76–77°F (22.5%), reflecting trader assessment of modest warming potential versus the usual cool advection. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any marine layer erosion, afternoon wind speeds, and subtle high-pressure influences that could allow brief inland heating before the next onshore surge. Official forecasts remain near 70–74°F with acknowledged uncertainty from model spread on boundary-layer mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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