Recent official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daily maximum of 17°C for Wellington on August 25 under mild northerly flow and partial clearing, aligning with the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome. Late-winter climatology for the region shows average August highs near 12–14°C, but current conditions have trended slightly above seasonal norms following a shift to milder air masses after earlier polar outbreaks. The 17°C threshold sits within typical model consensus ranges, though resolution depends on the official daily maximum recorded at the designated station. Uncertainties remain around localized wind effects or minor timing shifts in frontal passages that could alter the peak by 1°C, with updated model runs or real-time observations the next likely catalysts for any adjustment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
17°C 98%
18°C 1.5%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
NEW
$46,311 Vol.
NEW
$46,311 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
98%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
17°C 98%
18°C 1.5%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
NEW
$46,311 Vol.
NEW
$46,311 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
10°C or below
$650 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$628 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,693 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$4,007 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$7,261 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$14,765 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$7,784 Vol.
98%
18°C
$7,504 Vol.
1%
19°C
$238 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$1,541 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daily maximum of 17°C for Wellington on August 25 under mild northerly flow and partial clearing, aligning with the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome. Late-winter climatology for the region shows average August highs near 12–14°C, but current conditions have trended slightly above seasonal norms following a shift to milder air masses after earlier polar outbreaks. The 17°C threshold sits within typical model consensus ranges, though resolution depends on the official daily maximum recorded at the designated station. Uncertainties remain around localized wind effects or minor timing shifts in frontal passages that could alter the peak by 1°C, with updated model runs or real-time observations the next likely catalysts for any adjustment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$46,311End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daily maximum of 17°C for Wellington on August 25 under mild northerly flow and partial clearing, aligning with the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome. Late-winter climatology for the region shows average August highs near 12–14°C, but current conditions have trended slightly above seasonal norms following a shift to milder air masses after earlier polar outbreaks. The 17°C threshold sits within typical model consensus ranges, though resolution depends on the official daily maximum recorded at the designated station. Uncertainties remain around localized wind effects or minor timing shifts in frontal passages that could alter the peak by 1°C, with updated model runs or real-time observations the next likely catalysts for any adjustment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$46,311End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daily maximum of 17°C for Wellington on August 25 under mild northerly flow and partial clearing, aligning with the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome. Late-winter climatology for the region shows average August highs near 12–14°C, but current conditions have trended slightly above seasonal norms following a shift to milder air masses after earlier polar outbreaks. The 17°C threshold sits within typical model consensus ranges, though resolution depends on the official daily maximum recorded at the designated station. Uncertainties remain around localized wind effects or minor timing shifts in frontal passages that could alter the peak by 1°C, with updated model runs or real-time observations the next likely catalysts for any adjustment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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