Latest Environment Canada guidance and supporting global model runs point to a Toronto overnight low near 15–16 °C on August 26, produced by moderate northwest winds, dew points in the mid-teens, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. These conditions sit slightly below the climatological average low of roughly 17 °C while remaining well above historical extremes. Traders have clustered implied probability on 16 °C and 17 °C because small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed can alter the minimum by 1–2 °C; the 31 % weighting on 9 °C or below reflects residual tail risk if an unforecast cold front arrives. Upcoming evening model updates and the 00Z–12Z forecast cycles will likely tighten or shift these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 26?
9°C or below 57%
16°C 37%
17°C 29%
15°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
57%
10°C
3%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
28%
16°C
37%
17°C
29%
18°C
26%
19°C or higher
1%
9°C or below 57%
16°C 37%
17°C 29%
15°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
$135 Vol.
57%
10°C
$135 Vol.
3%
11°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$15 Vol.
1%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
37%
17°C
$0 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C or higher
$150 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Environment Canada guidance and supporting global model runs point to a Toronto overnight low near 15–16 °C on August 26, produced by moderate northwest winds, dew points in the mid-teens, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. These conditions sit slightly below the climatological average low of roughly 17 °C while remaining well above historical extremes. Traders have clustered implied probability on 16 °C and 17 °C because small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed can alter the minimum by 1–2 °C; the 31 % weighting on 9 °C or below reflects residual tail risk if an unforecast cold front arrives. Upcoming evening model updates and the 00Z–12Z forecast cycles will likely tighten or shift these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$580End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Environment Canada guidance and supporting global model runs point to a Toronto overnight low near 15–16 °C on August 26, produced by moderate northwest winds, dew points in the mid-teens, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. These conditions sit slightly below the climatological average low of roughly 17 °C while remaining well above historical extremes. Traders have clustered implied probability on 16 °C and 17 °C because small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed can alter the minimum by 1–2 °C; the 31 % weighting on 9 °C or below reflects residual tail risk if an unforecast cold front arrives. Upcoming evening model updates and the 00Z–12Z forecast cycles will likely tighten or shift these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$580End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Environment Canada guidance and supporting global model runs point to a Toronto overnight low near 15–16 °C on August 26, produced by moderate northwest winds, dew points in the mid-teens, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. These conditions sit slightly below the climatological average low of roughly 17 °C while remaining well above historical extremes. Traders have clustered implied probability on 16 °C and 17 °C because small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed can alter the minimum by 1–2 °C; the 31 % weighting on 9 °C or below reflects residual tail risk if an unforecast cold front arrives. Upcoming evening model updates and the 00Z–12Z forecast cycles will likely tighten or shift these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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