Recent Environment Canada and GFS model consensus points to an overnight low of 15–16°C in Toronto on August 25, driven by northwest winds of 20–40 km/h, partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling, and dew points near 14–15°C. These factors produce modest overnight mixing and align closely with the late-August climatological average low of 17°C, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15°C and 16°C at roughly 26% each. Modest uncertainty from potential model revisions, exact wind timing, and localized urban heat-island effects supports the broader spread, including elevated probability on cooler outcomes, as traders weigh historical variability against current stable guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
11°C or below 92%
12°C 50%
14°C 50%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
11°C or below
92%
12°C
50%
13°C
15%
14°C
50%
15°C
27%
16°C
27%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
11°C or below 92%
12°C 50%
14°C 50%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
11°C or below
$155 Vol.
92%
12°C
$25 Vol.
50%
13°C
$80 Vol.
15%
14°C
$84 Vol.
50%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$261 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$354 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$296 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$449 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$402 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Environment Canada and GFS model consensus points to an overnight low of 15–16°C in Toronto on August 25, driven by northwest winds of 20–40 km/h, partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling, and dew points near 14–15°C. These factors produce modest overnight mixing and align closely with the late-August climatological average low of 17°C, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15°C and 16°C at roughly 26% each. Modest uncertainty from potential model revisions, exact wind timing, and localized urban heat-island effects supports the broader spread, including elevated probability on cooler outcomes, as traders weigh historical variability against current stable guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$2,106End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Environment Canada and GFS model consensus points to an overnight low of 15–16°C in Toronto on August 25, driven by northwest winds of 20–40 km/h, partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling, and dew points near 14–15°C. These factors produce modest overnight mixing and align closely with the late-August climatological average low of 17°C, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15°C and 16°C at roughly 26% each. Modest uncertainty from potential model revisions, exact wind timing, and localized urban heat-island effects supports the broader spread, including elevated probability on cooler outcomes, as traders weigh historical variability against current stable guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,106End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Environment Canada and GFS model consensus points to an overnight low of 15–16°C in Toronto on August 25, driven by northwest winds of 20–40 km/h, partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling, and dew points near 14–15°C. These factors produce modest overnight mixing and align closely with the late-August climatological average low of 17°C, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15°C and 16°C at roughly 26% each. Modest uncertainty from potential model revisions, exact wind timing, and localized urban heat-island effects supports the broader spread, including elevated probability on cooler outcomes, as traders weigh historical variability against current stable guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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