Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate persistent thunderstorms and heavy rain across Beijing on August 25, driven by warm, moist air interacting with weak cold fronts, which caps daytime heating and favors a maximum near 30–32 °C. High humidity near 85–95 % and extensive cloud cover further reduce surface solar heating, aligning with the market’s concentration on 31–33 °C outcomes. Historical August averages hover around 30 °C, and similar rainy patterns in recent years have kept peaks below 33 °C despite occasional brief clears. Updated model runs through midday will refine exact timing of heaviest precipitation, the key variable that could shift probabilities toward 34 °C if rain holds off longer than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
32°C 36%
33°C 21%
31°C 19%
30°C 13%
NEW
$13,265 Vol.
NEW
$13,265 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
13%
31°C
19%
32°C
36%
33°C
21%
34°C
6%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 36%
33°C 21%
31°C 19%
30°C 13%
NEW
$13,265 Vol.
NEW
$13,265 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
$717 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$510 Vol.
1%
28°C
$3,470 Vol.
1%
29°C
$1,410 Vol.
3%
30°C
$1,738 Vol.
13%
31°C
$1,651 Vol.
19%
32°C
$811 Vol.
36%
33°C
$1,337 Vol.
21%
34°C
$688 Vol.
6%
35°C
$336 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate persistent thunderstorms and heavy rain across Beijing on August 25, driven by warm, moist air interacting with weak cold fronts, which caps daytime heating and favors a maximum near 30–32 °C. High humidity near 85–95 % and extensive cloud cover further reduce surface solar heating, aligning with the market’s concentration on 31–33 °C outcomes. Historical August averages hover around 30 °C, and similar rainy patterns in recent years have kept peaks below 33 °C despite occasional brief clears. Updated model runs through midday will refine exact timing of heaviest precipitation, the key variable that could shift probabilities toward 34 °C if rain holds off longer than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$13,265End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate persistent thunderstorms and heavy rain across Beijing on August 25, driven by warm, moist air interacting with weak cold fronts, which caps daytime heating and favors a maximum near 30–32 °C. High humidity near 85–95 % and extensive cloud cover further reduce surface solar heating, aligning with the market’s concentration on 31–33 °C outcomes. Historical August averages hover around 30 °C, and similar rainy patterns in recent years have kept peaks below 33 °C despite occasional brief clears. Updated model runs through midday will refine exact timing of heaviest precipitation, the key variable that could shift probabilities toward 34 °C if rain holds off longer than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,265End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate persistent thunderstorms and heavy rain across Beijing on August 25, driven by warm, moist air interacting with weak cold fronts, which caps daytime heating and favors a maximum near 30–32 °C. High humidity near 85–95 % and extensive cloud cover further reduce surface solar heating, aligning with the market’s concentration on 31–33 °C outcomes. Historical August averages hover around 30 °C, and similar rainy patterns in recent years have kept peaks below 33 °C despite occasional brief clears. Updated model runs through midday will refine exact timing of heaviest precipitation, the key variable that could shift probabilities toward 34 °C if rain holds off longer than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions