Forecast consensus from operational meteorological models, including runs from Turkey’s State Meteorological Service and European ensembles, clusters tightly around a daily high of 31°C for Ankara on August 25 under a stable late-summer high-pressure pattern with light winds and minimal cloud cover. This positions the 31°C outcome as the clear market leader at 73.5% implied probability, while the 30°C and 32°C brackets capture residual uncertainty in model spread and potential microscale variations near urban measurement sites. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, yet current guidance shows no significant warming trend or frontal passage that would push readings higher, keeping probabilities for 33°C and above below 1%. Updated model cycles and official observations from the Turkish meteorological network remain the key near-term catalysts for any further shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on August 25?
Highest temperature in Ankara on August 25?
31°C 72%
30°C 20%
32°C 10%
29°C 2%
NEW
$16,267 Vol.
NEW
$16,267 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
20%
31°C
72%
32°C
10%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 72%
30°C 20%
32°C 10%
29°C 2%
NEW
$16,267 Vol.
NEW
$16,267 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
$55 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$233 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$242 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$704 Vol.
2%
30°C
$3,589 Vol.
20%
31°C
$4,101 Vol.
72%
32°C
$1,651 Vol.
10%
33°C
$678 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$734 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,678 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$2,600 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from operational meteorological models, including runs from Turkey’s State Meteorological Service and European ensembles, clusters tightly around a daily high of 31°C for Ankara on August 25 under a stable late-summer high-pressure pattern with light winds and minimal cloud cover. This positions the 31°C outcome as the clear market leader at 73.5% implied probability, while the 30°C and 32°C brackets capture residual uncertainty in model spread and potential microscale variations near urban measurement sites. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, yet current guidance shows no significant warming trend or frontal passage that would push readings higher, keeping probabilities for 33°C and above below 1%. Updated model cycles and official observations from the Turkish meteorological network remain the key near-term catalysts for any further shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$16,267End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from operational meteorological models, including runs from Turkey’s State Meteorological Service and European ensembles, clusters tightly around a daily high of 31°C for Ankara on August 25 under a stable late-summer high-pressure pattern with light winds and minimal cloud cover. This positions the 31°C outcome as the clear market leader at 73.5% implied probability, while the 30°C and 32°C brackets capture residual uncertainty in model spread and potential microscale variations near urban measurement sites. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, yet current guidance shows no significant warming trend or frontal passage that would push readings higher, keeping probabilities for 33°C and above below 1%. Updated model cycles and official observations from the Turkish meteorological network remain the key near-term catalysts for any further shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,267End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from operational meteorological models, including runs from Turkey’s State Meteorological Service and European ensembles, clusters tightly around a daily high of 31°C for Ankara on August 25 under a stable late-summer high-pressure pattern with light winds and minimal cloud cover. This positions the 31°C outcome as the clear market leader at 73.5% implied probability, while the 30°C and 32°C brackets capture residual uncertainty in model spread and potential microscale variations near urban measurement sites. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, yet current guidance shows no significant warming trend or frontal passage that would push readings higher, keeping probabilities for 33°C and above below 1%. Updated model cycles and official observations from the Turkish meteorological network remain the key near-term catalysts for any further shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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