Recent forecast consensus from models like the GFS points to a daytime high near 17°C in Moscow on August 25, 2026, driven by a seasonal late-summer cooling trend and a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air. Increased cloud cover and light rain showers are suppressing surface heating and limiting convective development, keeping temperatures below recent daily peaks around 20–21°C. Historical climatology shows late-August averages near 16–20°C, with this pattern aligning closely to the lower end of that range. Market-implied odds favor 17°C as the most likely outcome while assigning meaningful probability to 16°C and 18°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact model timing and any brief clearing that could allow slightly higher readings before resolution based on official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 25?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 25?
17°C 59%
16°C 29%
18°C 11%
15°C 4%
NEW
$11,791 Vol.
NEW
$11,791 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
4%
16°C
29%
17°C
59%
18°C
11%
19°C
2%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
17°C 59%
16°C 29%
18°C 11%
15°C 4%
NEW
$11,791 Vol.
NEW
$11,791 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
13°C or below
$493 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$413 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,221 Vol.
4%
16°C
$981 Vol.
29%
17°C
$1,371 Vol.
59%
18°C
$2,676 Vol.
11%
19°C
$951 Vol.
2%
20°C
$664 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$721 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$932 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,367 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models like the GFS points to a daytime high near 17°C in Moscow on August 25, 2026, driven by a seasonal late-summer cooling trend and a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air. Increased cloud cover and light rain showers are suppressing surface heating and limiting convective development, keeping temperatures below recent daily peaks around 20–21°C. Historical climatology shows late-August averages near 16–20°C, with this pattern aligning closely to the lower end of that range. Market-implied odds favor 17°C as the most likely outcome while assigning meaningful probability to 16°C and 18°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact model timing and any brief clearing that could allow slightly higher readings before resolution based on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$11,791End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models like the GFS points to a daytime high near 17°C in Moscow on August 25, 2026, driven by a seasonal late-summer cooling trend and a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air. Increased cloud cover and light rain showers are suppressing surface heating and limiting convective development, keeping temperatures below recent daily peaks around 20–21°C. Historical climatology shows late-August averages near 16–20°C, with this pattern aligning closely to the lower end of that range. Market-implied odds favor 17°C as the most likely outcome while assigning meaningful probability to 16°C and 18°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact model timing and any brief clearing that could allow slightly higher readings before resolution based on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,791End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models like the GFS points to a daytime high near 17°C in Moscow on August 25, 2026, driven by a seasonal late-summer cooling trend and a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air. Increased cloud cover and light rain showers are suppressing surface heating and limiting convective development, keeping temperatures below recent daily peaks around 20–21°C. Historical climatology shows late-August averages near 16–20°C, with this pattern aligning closely to the lower end of that range. Market-implied odds favor 17°C as the most likely outcome while assigning meaningful probability to 16°C and 18°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact model timing and any brief clearing that could allow slightly higher readings before resolution based on official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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