**Forecast consensus for Moscow’s overnight low on August 25 centers on 10–12 °C because models show a cool, moist air mass with variable cloud cover and light rain limiting nocturnal radiative cooling.** Russian meteorological sources (Hydrometeorological Center, Meteonosti, and prognoz centers) project nighttime temperatures of roughly +11…+13 °C under mostly cloudy skies, with brief showers and west-to-southwest winds of 4–11 m/s. These conditions suppress the clear-sky cooling that would otherwise push minima lower, while the seasonal baseline average low for the date is 11.7 °C. Slight differences among model runs—driven by exact timing of cloud breaks, wind gusts, and precipitation—produce the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C. Later in the week a Scandinavian anticyclone is expected to stabilize the pattern, but that shift arrives after the 25th minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 25?
10°C 34%
11°C 34%
9°C 24%
8°C or below 1.0%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
24%
10°C
34%
11°C
34%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
10°C 34%
11°C 34%
9°C 24%
8°C or below 1.0%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
$199 Vol.
1%
9°C
$256 Vol.
24%
10°C
$0 Vol.
34%
11°C
$0 Vol.
34%
12°C
$316 Vol.
1%
13°C
$220 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$263 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$840 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$255 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$405 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Moscow’s overnight low on August 25 centers on 10–12 °C because models show a cool, moist air mass with variable cloud cover and light rain limiting nocturnal radiative cooling.**
Russian meteorological sources (Hydrometeorological Center, Meteonosti, and prognoz centers) project nighttime temperatures of roughly +11…+13 °C under mostly cloudy skies, with brief showers and west-to-southwest winds of 4–11 m/s. These conditions suppress the clear-sky cooling that would otherwise push minima lower, while the seasonal baseline average low for the date is 11.7 °C. Slight differences among model runs—driven by exact timing of cloud breaks, wind gusts, and precipitation—produce the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C. Later in the week a Scandinavian anticyclone is expected to stabilize the pattern, but that shift arrives after the 25th minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$2,948End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Moscow’s overnight low on August 25 centers on 10–12 °C because models show a cool, moist air mass with variable cloud cover and light rain limiting nocturnal radiative cooling.**
Russian meteorological sources (Hydrometeorological Center, Meteonosti, and prognoz centers) project nighttime temperatures of roughly +11…+13 °C under mostly cloudy skies, with brief showers and west-to-southwest winds of 4–11 m/s. These conditions suppress the clear-sky cooling that would otherwise push minima lower, while the seasonal baseline average low for the date is 11.7 °C. Slight differences among model runs—driven by exact timing of cloud breaks, wind gusts, and precipitation—produce the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C. Later in the week a Scandinavian anticyclone is expected to stabilize the pattern, but that shift arrives after the 25th minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,948End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus for Moscow’s overnight low on August 25 centers on 10–12 °C because models show a cool, moist air mass with variable cloud cover and light rain limiting nocturnal radiative cooling.** Russian meteorological sources (Hydrometeorological Center, Meteonosti, and prognoz centers) project nighttime temperatures of roughly +11…+13 °C under mostly cloudy skies, with brief showers and west-to-southwest winds of 4–11 m/s. These conditions suppress the clear-sky cooling that would otherwise push minima lower, while the seasonal baseline average low for the date is 11.7 °C. Slight differences among model runs—driven by exact timing of cloud breaks, wind gusts, and precipitation—produce the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C. Later in the week a Scandinavian anticyclone is expected to stabilize the pattern, but that shift arrives after the 25th minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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