Forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center ahead of August 24 consistently projected a nighttime minimum of 11°C in Moscow under cloudy skies with scattered rain and moderate southwesterly winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.8°C for the date. These conditions limited radiative cooling and kept temperatures from dropping toward the lower tail of historical records. The resulting 64.5% implied probability on 11°C reflects traders weighting official guidance and model consensus over outlier scenarios, with minimal shifts expected until final observational data from Moscow stations confirm the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 24?
10°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$4,215 Vol.
$4,215 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
-
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
10°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$4,215 Vol.
$4,215 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
$268 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$262 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$390 Vol.
-
12°C
$438 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$401 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$338 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$350 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$978 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$225 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$200 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$365 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center ahead of August 24 consistently projected a nighttime minimum of 11°C in Moscow under cloudy skies with scattered rain and moderate southwesterly winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.8°C for the date. These conditions limited radiative cooling and kept temperatures from dropping toward the lower tail of historical records. The resulting 64.5% implied probability on 11°C reflects traders weighting official guidance and model consensus over outlier scenarios, with minimal shifts expected until final observational data from Moscow stations confirm the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,215End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center ahead of August 24 consistently projected a nighttime minimum of 11°C in Moscow under cloudy skies with scattered rain and moderate southwesterly winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.8°C for the date. These conditions limited radiative cooling and kept temperatures from dropping toward the lower tail of historical records. The resulting 64.5% implied probability on 11°C reflects traders weighting official guidance and model consensus over outlier scenarios, with minimal shifts expected until final observational data from Moscow stations confirm the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,215End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center ahead of August 24 consistently projected a nighttime minimum of 11°C in Moscow under cloudy skies with scattered rain and moderate southwesterly winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.8°C for the date. These conditions limited radiative cooling and kept temperatures from dropping toward the lower tail of historical records. The resulting 64.5% implied probability on 11°C reflects traders weighting official guidance and model consensus over outlier scenarios, with minimal shifts expected until final observational data from Moscow stations confirm the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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