Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Chicago O'Hare indicate a Tuesday night low near 59–66°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting market-implied odds clustered around 56–63°F. Radiative cooling overnight will be moderated by residual cloud cover and dew points in the mid-50s, while daytime mixing and a modest pressure gradient limit further drops below the climatological 64–65°F average. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact cloud timing creates the tight probability distribution across adjacent bins, with traders weighting the most recent 00Z–12Z runs that show limited nocturnal cooling potential absent stronger high pressure or drier air advection. Updated NHC-adjacent short-range guidance and hourly observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 25?
49°F or below 51%
58-59°F 28%
56-57°F 27%
62-63°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
51%
50-51°F
5%
52-53°F
9%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
28%
60-61°F
32%
62-63°F
27%
64-65°F
5%
66-67°F
2%
68°F or higher
1%
49°F or below 51%
58-59°F 28%
56-57°F 27%
62-63°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
$20 Vol.
51%
50-51°F
$196 Vol.
5%
52-53°F
$150 Vol.
9%
54-55°F
$5 Vol.
26%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
28%
60-61°F
$16 Vol.
32%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
27%
64-65°F
$61 Vol.
5%
66-67°F
$150 Vol.
2%
68°F or higher
$150 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Chicago O'Hare indicate a Tuesday night low near 59–66°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting market-implied odds clustered around 56–63°F. Radiative cooling overnight will be moderated by residual cloud cover and dew points in the mid-50s, while daytime mixing and a modest pressure gradient limit further drops below the climatological 64–65°F average. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact cloud timing creates the tight probability distribution across adjacent bins, with traders weighting the most recent 00Z–12Z runs that show limited nocturnal cooling potential absent stronger high pressure or drier air advection. Updated NHC-adjacent short-range guidance and hourly observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$743End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Chicago O'Hare indicate a Tuesday night low near 59–66°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting market-implied odds clustered around 56–63°F. Radiative cooling overnight will be moderated by residual cloud cover and dew points in the mid-50s, while daytime mixing and a modest pressure gradient limit further drops below the climatological 64–65°F average. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact cloud timing creates the tight probability distribution across adjacent bins, with traders weighting the most recent 00Z–12Z runs that show limited nocturnal cooling potential absent stronger high pressure or drier air advection. Updated NHC-adjacent short-range guidance and hourly observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$743End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Chicago O'Hare indicate a Tuesday night low near 59–66°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting market-implied odds clustered around 56–63°F. Radiative cooling overnight will be moderated by residual cloud cover and dew points in the mid-50s, while daytime mixing and a modest pressure gradient limit further drops below the climatological 64–65°F average. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact cloud timing creates the tight probability distribution across adjacent bins, with traders weighting the most recent 00Z–12Z runs that show limited nocturnal cooling potential absent stronger high pressure or drier air advection. Updated NHC-adjacent short-range guidance and hourly observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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