Recent forecasts from AEMET and European models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on August 26 will likely fall in the 17–18 °C range, driven by moderate southwest winds, partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling, and a stable post-summer pattern without strong cold advection. These conditions contrast with the 18.5 °C climatological average low and recent nights near 20 °C, supporting the market's tight clustering around 16–19 °C outcomes. Minor differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C, while updated model runs and official observations on the 26th will further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
14°C or below 38%
16°C 30%
17°C 30%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
38%
15°C
27%
16°C
30%
17°C
30%
18°C
27%
19°C
20%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
14°C or below 38%
16°C 30%
17°C 30%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
38%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
30%
17°C
$0 Vol.
30%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$445 Vol.
2%
22°C
$5 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$135 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and European models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on August 26 will likely fall in the 17–18 °C range, driven by moderate southwest winds, partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling, and a stable post-summer pattern without strong cold advection. These conditions contrast with the 18.5 °C climatological average low and recent nights near 20 °C, supporting the market's tight clustering around 16–19 °C outcomes. Minor differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C, while updated model runs and official observations on the 26th will further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$590End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and European models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on August 26 will likely fall in the 17–18 °C range, driven by moderate southwest winds, partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling, and a stable post-summer pattern without strong cold advection. These conditions contrast with the 18.5 °C climatological average low and recent nights near 20 °C, supporting the market's tight clustering around 16–19 °C outcomes. Minor differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C, while updated model runs and official observations on the 26th will further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$590End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from AEMET and European models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on August 26 will likely fall in the 17–18 °C range, driven by moderate southwest winds, partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling, and a stable post-summer pattern without strong cold advection. These conditions contrast with the 18.5 °C climatological average low and recent nights near 20 °C, supporting the market's tight clustering around 16–19 °C outcomes. Minor differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C, while updated model runs and official observations on the 26th will further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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