**Official short-range forecasts from AEMET and international models converge on a maximum of 28–29 °C for Madrid on 26 August 2026.** AEMET’s municipal forecast lists a daytime high of 28 °C under southwesterly flow at 15 km/h with negligible precipitation risk, while BBC and Met Office guidance both indicate 28–29 °C amid sunny intervals. These values sit slightly below the long-term August average high near 31 °C, consistent with a modest late-summer cooling trend after warmer conditions earlier in the month. **Scientific drivers include the current synoptic setup:** a stable pressure pattern allowing Atlantic-influenced air to moderate daytime heating, combined with moderate winds that enhance mixing and limit extreme surface warming. Ensemble spread remains narrow for a 24-hour horizon, keeping 30 °C or higher outcomes at low probability. Seasonal outlooks from AEMET note a warm tercile bias for the broader quarter, yet day-to-day model runs have consistently trimmed the peak for this specific date. **Trader positioning (29 °C at 47.5 %, 28 °C at 31.5 %, 30 °C at 17.5 %) mirrors the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble guidance around these two values.** Fresh model updates or any last-minute shift in low-level wind or cloud cover could nudge the exact maximum by 1 °C, explaining why the market leaves meaningful probability on either side of 29 °C while assigning negligible weight to extremes. Resolution will rest on AEMET-verified observations for the capital.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
29°C 48%
28°C 32%
30°C 18%
31°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
32%
29°C
48%
30°C
18%
31°C
4%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 48%
28°C 32%
30°C 18%
31°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
$212 Vol.
1%
26°C
$92 Vol.
1%
27°C
$513 Vol.
4%
28°C
$1,577 Vol.
32%
29°C
$868 Vol.
48%
30°C
$3,264 Vol.
18%
31°C
$289 Vol.
4%
32°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$114 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$69 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$292 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official short-range forecasts from AEMET and international models converge on a maximum of 28–29 °C for Madrid on 26 August 2026.** AEMET’s municipal forecast lists a daytime high of 28 °C under southwesterly flow at 15 km/h with negligible precipitation risk, while BBC and Met Office guidance both indicate 28–29 °C amid sunny intervals. These values sit slightly below the long-term August average high near 31 °C, consistent with a modest late-summer cooling trend after warmer conditions earlier in the month.
**Scientific drivers include the current synoptic setup:** a stable pressure pattern allowing Atlantic-influenced air to moderate daytime heating, combined with moderate winds that enhance mixing and limit extreme surface warming. Ensemble spread remains narrow for a 24-hour horizon, keeping 30 °C or higher outcomes at low probability. Seasonal outlooks from AEMET note a warm tercile bias for the broader quarter, yet day-to-day model runs have consistently trimmed the peak for this specific date.
**Trader positioning (29 °C at 47.5 %, 28 °C at 31.5 %, 30 °C at 17.5 %) mirrors the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble guidance around these two values.** Fresh model updates or any last-minute shift in low-level wind or cloud cover could nudge the exact maximum by 1 °C, explaining why the market leaves meaningful probability on either side of 29 °C while assigning negligible weight to extremes. Resolution will rest on AEMET-verified observations for the capital.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$7,415End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official short-range forecasts from AEMET and international models converge on a maximum of 28–29 °C for Madrid on 26 August 2026.** AEMET’s municipal forecast lists a daytime high of 28 °C under southwesterly flow at 15 km/h with negligible precipitation risk, while BBC and Met Office guidance both indicate 28–29 °C amid sunny intervals. These values sit slightly below the long-term August average high near 31 °C, consistent with a modest late-summer cooling trend after warmer conditions earlier in the month.
**Scientific drivers include the current synoptic setup:** a stable pressure pattern allowing Atlantic-influenced air to moderate daytime heating, combined with moderate winds that enhance mixing and limit extreme surface warming. Ensemble spread remains narrow for a 24-hour horizon, keeping 30 °C or higher outcomes at low probability. Seasonal outlooks from AEMET note a warm tercile bias for the broader quarter, yet day-to-day model runs have consistently trimmed the peak for this specific date.
**Trader positioning (29 °C at 47.5 %, 28 °C at 31.5 %, 30 °C at 17.5 %) mirrors the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble guidance around these two values.** Fresh model updates or any last-minute shift in low-level wind or cloud cover could nudge the exact maximum by 1 °C, explaining why the market leaves meaningful probability on either side of 29 °C while assigning negligible weight to extremes. Resolution will rest on AEMET-verified observations for the capital.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,415End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official short-range forecasts from AEMET and international models converge on a maximum of 28–29 °C for Madrid on 26 August 2026.** AEMET’s municipal forecast lists a daytime high of 28 °C under southwesterly flow at 15 km/h with negligible precipitation risk, while BBC and Met Office guidance both indicate 28–29 °C amid sunny intervals. These values sit slightly below the long-term August average high near 31 °C, consistent with a modest late-summer cooling trend after warmer conditions earlier in the month. **Scientific drivers include the current synoptic setup:** a stable pressure pattern allowing Atlantic-influenced air to moderate daytime heating, combined with moderate winds that enhance mixing and limit extreme surface warming. Ensemble spread remains narrow for a 24-hour horizon, keeping 30 °C or higher outcomes at low probability. Seasonal outlooks from AEMET note a warm tercile bias for the broader quarter, yet day-to-day model runs have consistently trimmed the peak for this specific date. **Trader positioning (29 °C at 47.5 %, 28 °C at 31.5 %, 30 °C at 17.5 %) mirrors the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble guidance around these two values.** Fresh model updates or any last-minute shift in low-level wind or cloud cover could nudge the exact maximum by 1 °C, explaining why the market leaves meaningful probability on either side of 29 °C while assigning negligible weight to extremes. Resolution will rest on AEMET-verified observations for the capital.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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