Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's overnight minimum on August 26 will likely settle in the 15–17 °C range, reflecting a typical late-summer radiative cooling pattern under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Ensemble spreads arise from uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimums by 1–2 °C, while the urban heat island effect keeps city-center readings slightly above rural baselines. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 17 °C, with occasional dips below 15 °C under clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has narrowed the range without shifting the central tendency, leaving closely matched market-implied probabilities around 14–18 °C as traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs ahead of final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
14°C or below 39%
17°C 31%
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
39%
15°C
24%
16°C
28%
17°C
31%
18°C
27%
19°C
22%
20°C
25%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
14°C or below 39%
17°C 31%
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$6 Vol.
24%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
31%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$445 Vol.
3%
22°C
$5 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$135 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's overnight minimum on August 26 will likely settle in the 15–17 °C range, reflecting a typical late-summer radiative cooling pattern under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Ensemble spreads arise from uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimums by 1–2 °C, while the urban heat island effect keeps city-center readings slightly above rural baselines. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 17 °C, with occasional dips below 15 °C under clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has narrowed the range without shifting the central tendency, leaving closely matched market-implied probabilities around 14–18 °C as traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$596End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's overnight minimum on August 26 will likely settle in the 15–17 °C range, reflecting a typical late-summer radiative cooling pattern under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Ensemble spreads arise from uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimums by 1–2 °C, while the urban heat island effect keeps city-center readings slightly above rural baselines. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 17 °C, with occasional dips below 15 °C under clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has narrowed the range without shifting the central tendency, leaving closely matched market-implied probabilities around 14–18 °C as traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$596End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's overnight minimum on August 26 will likely settle in the 15–17 °C range, reflecting a typical late-summer radiative cooling pattern under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Ensemble spreads arise from uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimums by 1–2 °C, while the urban heat island effect keeps city-center readings slightly above rural baselines. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 17 °C, with occasional dips below 15 °C under clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has narrowed the range without shifting the central tendency, leaving closely matched market-implied probabilities around 14–18 °C as traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs ahead of final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions