Recent AEMET forecasts and numerical weather models show Madrid's overnight minimum on August 24 stabilizing near 20°C, driven by increased cloud cover, light rain, and southwesterly flow that limits radiative cooling. Observations through the evening confirm temperatures holding in the low 20s Celsius across central stations, consistent with climatological patterns for late August where average lows sit around 18–19°C but current synoptic conditions suppress further drops. Market-implied odds near 99% on 20°C reflect this consensus from official guidance, with traders assigning skin-in-the-game weight to the narrow forecast range. A clear-sky break or stronger nocturnal drainage could push readings to 19°C or 21°C, though model agreement makes such shifts unlikely before midnight resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
$5,725 Vol.
$5,725 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
20°C
99%
21°C
<1%
$5,725 Vol.
$5,725 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
20°C
$755 Vol.
99%
21°C
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET forecasts and numerical weather models show Madrid's overnight minimum on August 24 stabilizing near 20°C, driven by increased cloud cover, light rain, and southwesterly flow that limits radiative cooling. Observations through the evening confirm temperatures holding in the low 20s Celsius across central stations, consistent with climatological patterns for late August where average lows sit around 18–19°C but current synoptic conditions suppress further drops. Market-implied odds near 99% on 20°C reflect this consensus from official guidance, with traders assigning skin-in-the-game weight to the narrow forecast range. A clear-sky break or stronger nocturnal drainage could push readings to 19°C or 21°C, though model agreement makes such shifts unlikely before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,725End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET forecasts and numerical weather models show Madrid's overnight minimum on August 24 stabilizing near 20°C, driven by increased cloud cover, light rain, and southwesterly flow that limits radiative cooling. Observations through the evening confirm temperatures holding in the low 20s Celsius across central stations, consistent with climatological patterns for late August where average lows sit around 18–19°C but current synoptic conditions suppress further drops. Market-implied odds near 99% on 20°C reflect this consensus from official guidance, with traders assigning skin-in-the-game weight to the narrow forecast range. A clear-sky break or stronger nocturnal drainage could push readings to 19°C or 21°C, though model agreement makes such shifts unlikely before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,725End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET forecasts and numerical weather models show Madrid's overnight minimum on August 24 stabilizing near 20°C, driven by increased cloud cover, light rain, and southwesterly flow that limits radiative cooling. Observations through the evening confirm temperatures holding in the low 20s Celsius across central stations, consistent with climatological patterns for late August where average lows sit around 18–19°C but current synoptic conditions suppress further drops. Market-implied odds near 99% on 20°C reflect this consensus from official guidance, with traders assigning skin-in-the-game weight to the narrow forecast range. A clear-sky break or stronger nocturnal drainage could push readings to 19°C or 21°C, though model agreement makes such shifts unlikely before midnight resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions