Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office, BBC Weather, and AccuWeather converge on a daily minimum of 17–19°C for Madrid on August 25, 2026, reflecting typical late-summer radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. This range aligns with climatological August averages near 17°C and the ongoing seasonal decline in overnight lows. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 17–19°C because numerical weather models show only modest differences in factors such as boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and urban heat-island effects that modulate the precise minimum. Traders weigh these variables against historical observation spreads, recognizing that small forecast adjustments from the next model runs or official AEMET verification could shift the recorded low by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
17°C 52%
15°C or below 8%
16°C 7%
20°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
8%
16°C
7%
17°C
28%
18°C
29%
19°C
34%
20°C
6%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
17°C 52%
15°C or below 8%
16°C 7%
20°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
$48 Vol.
8%
16°C
$19 Vol.
7%
17°C
$27 Vol.
28%
18°C
$24 Vol.
29%
19°C
$100 Vol.
34%
20°C
$85 Vol.
6%
21°C
$329 Vol.
1%
22°C
$33 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$468 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,098 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$131 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office, BBC Weather, and AccuWeather converge on a daily minimum of 17–19°C for Madrid on August 25, 2026, reflecting typical late-summer radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. This range aligns with climatological August averages near 17°C and the ongoing seasonal decline in overnight lows. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 17–19°C because numerical weather models show only modest differences in factors such as boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and urban heat-island effects that modulate the precise minimum. Traders weigh these variables against historical observation spreads, recognizing that small forecast adjustments from the next model runs or official AEMET verification could shift the recorded low by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,771End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office, BBC Weather, and AccuWeather converge on a daily minimum of 17–19°C for Madrid on August 25, 2026, reflecting typical late-summer radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. This range aligns with climatological August averages near 17°C and the ongoing seasonal decline in overnight lows. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 17–19°C because numerical weather models show only modest differences in factors such as boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and urban heat-island effects that modulate the precise minimum. Traders weigh these variables against historical observation spreads, recognizing that small forecast adjustments from the next model runs or official AEMET verification could shift the recorded low by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,771End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office, BBC Weather, and AccuWeather converge on a daily minimum of 17–19°C for Madrid on August 25, 2026, reflecting typical late-summer radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. This range aligns with climatological August averages near 17°C and the ongoing seasonal decline in overnight lows. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 17–19°C because numerical weather models show only modest differences in factors such as boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and urban heat-island effects that modulate the precise minimum. Traders weigh these variables against historical observation spreads, recognizing that small forecast adjustments from the next model runs or official AEMET verification could shift the recorded low by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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