Recent forecasts from major meteorological agencies indicate a mild late-winter night in Buenos Aires on August 25, with minimum temperatures likely ranging 7–11°C under stable high pressure near 1024 hPa and light northeasterly winds. Clear to partly cloudy skies will promote radiative cooling after sunset, while limited cold-air advection keeps extremes unlikely. Model consensus shows modest spread in overnight lows due to small variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact wind speeds, which explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across single-digit outcomes and the elevated 29.5% on 12°C or higher. Historical August climatology supports typical minima near 8–10°C, with traders weighting current observations from August 24 (around 6–7°C) against potential modest warming. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on August 25?
12°C or higher 59%
4°C 27%
5°C 27%
7°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
2°C or below
1%
3°C
24%
4°C
27%
5°C
27%
6°C
26%
7°C
27%
8°C
26%
9°C
26%
10°C
1%
11°C
5%
12°C or higher
59%
12°C or higher 59%
4°C 27%
5°C 27%
7°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
2°C or below
$135 Vol.
1%
3°C
$34 Vol.
24%
4°C
$0 Vol.
27%
5°C
$0 Vol.
27%
6°C
$0 Vol.
26%
7°C
$0 Vol.
27%
8°C
$0 Vol.
26%
9°C
$85 Vol.
26%
10°C
$145 Vol.
1%
11°C
$140 Vol.
5%
12°C or higher
$150 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major meteorological agencies indicate a mild late-winter night in Buenos Aires on August 25, with minimum temperatures likely ranging 7–11°C under stable high pressure near 1024 hPa and light northeasterly winds. Clear to partly cloudy skies will promote radiative cooling after sunset, while limited cold-air advection keeps extremes unlikely. Model consensus shows modest spread in overnight lows due to small variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact wind speeds, which explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across single-digit outcomes and the elevated 29.5% on 12°C or higher. Historical August climatology supports typical minima near 8–10°C, with traders weighting current observations from August 24 (around 6–7°C) against potential modest warming. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$689End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major meteorological agencies indicate a mild late-winter night in Buenos Aires on August 25, with minimum temperatures likely ranging 7–11°C under stable high pressure near 1024 hPa and light northeasterly winds. Clear to partly cloudy skies will promote radiative cooling after sunset, while limited cold-air advection keeps extremes unlikely. Model consensus shows modest spread in overnight lows due to small variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact wind speeds, which explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across single-digit outcomes and the elevated 29.5% on 12°C or higher. Historical August climatology supports typical minima near 8–10°C, with traders weighting current observations from August 24 (around 6–7°C) against potential modest warming. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$689End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from major meteorological agencies indicate a mild late-winter night in Buenos Aires on August 25, with minimum temperatures likely ranging 7–11°C under stable high pressure near 1024 hPa and light northeasterly winds. Clear to partly cloudy skies will promote radiative cooling after sunset, while limited cold-air advection keeps extremes unlikely. Model consensus shows modest spread in overnight lows due to small variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact wind speeds, which explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across single-digit outcomes and the elevated 29.5% on 12°C or higher. Historical August climatology supports typical minima near 8–10°C, with traders weighting current observations from August 24 (around 6–7°C) against potential modest warming. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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