**Recent forecasts and observational data position 14–15°C as the most likely range for Buenos Aires’ daily maximum on August 25, 2026.** Multiple models and official guidance from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international forecasters indicate a high near 13–14°C under persistent northeasterly flow and increasing cloud cover, following a recent polar air mass that kept prior days cooler than seasonal norms. August climatology for the city shows average highs of 16–18°C, but current conditions reflect suppressed daytime heating from high pressure, stable stratification, and limited solar insolation amid the winter pattern. Recent model consensus and surface observations (morning lows near 8–10°C rising slowly through the afternoon) support the market’s heavy weighting toward 14°C and 15°C outcomes, with only modest probability assigned to 16°C or higher under stronger warming scenarios. Traders appear to be incorporating the latest short-range guidance showing no significant warm-air advection or clearing that would push temperatures notably above 15°C, while the low likelihood of sub-13°C readings aligns with gradual diurnal recovery from overnight minima. Upcoming afternoon observations and any updated SMN briefings will refine these implied probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on August 25?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on August 25?
15°C 50%
14°C 36%
16°C 10%
13°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
6%
14°C
36%
15°C
50%
16°C
10%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 50%
14°C 36%
16°C 10%
13°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
$819 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$259 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$163 Vol.
1%
12°C
$197 Vol.
2%
13°C
$515 Vol.
6%
14°C
$1,744 Vol.
36%
15°C
$1,099 Vol.
50%
16°C
$436 Vol.
10%
17°C
$272 Vol.
2%
18°C
$128 Vol.
1%
19°C or higher
$259 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts and observational data position 14–15°C as the most likely range for Buenos Aires’ daily maximum on August 25, 2026.** Multiple models and official guidance from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international forecasters indicate a high near 13–14°C under persistent northeasterly flow and increasing cloud cover, following a recent polar air mass that kept prior days cooler than seasonal norms.
August climatology for the city shows average highs of 16–18°C, but current conditions reflect suppressed daytime heating from high pressure, stable stratification, and limited solar insolation amid the winter pattern. Recent model consensus and surface observations (morning lows near 8–10°C rising slowly through the afternoon) support the market’s heavy weighting toward 14°C and 15°C outcomes, with only modest probability assigned to 16°C or higher under stronger warming scenarios.
Traders appear to be incorporating the latest short-range guidance showing no significant warm-air advection or clearing that would push temperatures notably above 15°C, while the low likelihood of sub-13°C readings aligns with gradual diurnal recovery from overnight minima. Upcoming afternoon observations and any updated SMN briefings will refine these implied probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$5,891End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts and observational data position 14–15°C as the most likely range for Buenos Aires’ daily maximum on August 25, 2026.** Multiple models and official guidance from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international forecasters indicate a high near 13–14°C under persistent northeasterly flow and increasing cloud cover, following a recent polar air mass that kept prior days cooler than seasonal norms.
August climatology for the city shows average highs of 16–18°C, but current conditions reflect suppressed daytime heating from high pressure, stable stratification, and limited solar insolation amid the winter pattern. Recent model consensus and surface observations (morning lows near 8–10°C rising slowly through the afternoon) support the market’s heavy weighting toward 14°C and 15°C outcomes, with only modest probability assigned to 16°C or higher under stronger warming scenarios.
Traders appear to be incorporating the latest short-range guidance showing no significant warm-air advection or clearing that would push temperatures notably above 15°C, while the low likelihood of sub-13°C readings aligns with gradual diurnal recovery from overnight minima. Upcoming afternoon observations and any updated SMN briefings will refine these implied probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,891End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts and observational data position 14–15°C as the most likely range for Buenos Aires’ daily maximum on August 25, 2026.** Multiple models and official guidance from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international forecasters indicate a high near 13–14°C under persistent northeasterly flow and increasing cloud cover, following a recent polar air mass that kept prior days cooler than seasonal norms. August climatology for the city shows average highs of 16–18°C, but current conditions reflect suppressed daytime heating from high pressure, stable stratification, and limited solar insolation amid the winter pattern. Recent model consensus and surface observations (morning lows near 8–10°C rising slowly through the afternoon) support the market’s heavy weighting toward 14°C and 15°C outcomes, with only modest probability assigned to 16°C or higher under stronger warming scenarios. Traders appear to be incorporating the latest short-range guidance showing no significant warm-air advection or clearing that would push temperatures notably above 15°C, while the low likelihood of sub-13°C readings aligns with gradual diurnal recovery from overnight minima. Upcoming afternoon observations and any updated SMN briefings will refine these implied probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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