Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international sources converge on a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Beijing on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, expected thundershowers, and moderate southwesterly flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent runs show overnight lows holding near 23–25°C amid 80–90% rain chances and high humidity, preventing sharper drops seen in clearer historical analogs averaging 20.6°C. Trader consensus on the 25°C outcome at 58.5% implied probability reflects this model agreement and the narrow window for resolution, though slight revisions in steering patterns or precipitation timing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
23°C 34%
24°C 27%
22°C 14%
21°C or below 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
6%
22°C
8%
23°C
34%
24°C
27%
25°C
60%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
23°C 34%
24°C 27%
22°C 14%
21°C or below 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$75 Vol.
6%
22°C
$103 Vol.
8%
23°C
$0 Vol.
34%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$63 Vol.
60%
26°C
$428 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$937 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$493 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,512 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$614 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international sources converge on a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Beijing on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, expected thundershowers, and moderate southwesterly flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent runs show overnight lows holding near 23–25°C amid 80–90% rain chances and high humidity, preventing sharper drops seen in clearer historical analogs averaging 20.6°C. Trader consensus on the 25°C outcome at 58.5% implied probability reflects this model agreement and the narrow window for resolution, though slight revisions in steering patterns or precipitation timing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,365End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international sources converge on a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Beijing on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, expected thundershowers, and moderate southwesterly flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent runs show overnight lows holding near 23–25°C amid 80–90% rain chances and high humidity, preventing sharper drops seen in clearer historical analogs averaging 20.6°C. Trader consensus on the 25°C outcome at 58.5% implied probability reflects this model agreement and the narrow window for resolution, though slight revisions in steering patterns or precipitation timing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,365End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international sources converge on a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Beijing on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, expected thundershowers, and moderate southwesterly flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent runs show overnight lows holding near 23–25°C amid 80–90% rain chances and high humidity, preventing sharper drops seen in clearer historical analogs averaging 20.6°C. Trader consensus on the 25°C outcome at 58.5% implied probability reflects this model agreement and the narrow window for resolution, though slight revisions in steering patterns or precipitation timing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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