Forecast models from agencies including the Israel Meteorological Service and international ensembles converge on a peak temperature near 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 25, driven by a subtropical ridge maintaining clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly sea breezes, and typical late-summer insolation under high pressure. Recent 24-hour updates show minimal deviation from climatological norms of ~30–31°C highs, with humidity around 50–65% and no significant advection of hotter air masses. This consensus, alongside real-time observational trends, underpins the market’s 72.5% implied probability on 33°C as the most likely official maximum, while the 17.5% on 34°C captures residual model spread and potential afternoon warming if winds weaken.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 25?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 25?
33°C 75%
34°C 18%
32°C 8%
35°C 1.0%
NEW
$15,662 Vol.
NEW
$15,662 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
8%
33°C
75%
34°C
18%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 75%
34°C 18%
32°C 8%
35°C 1.0%
NEW
$15,662 Vol.
NEW
$15,662 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
29°C or below
$866 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,233 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$879 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$2,005 Vol.
8%
33°C
$5,590 Vol.
75%
34°C
$2,393 Vol.
18%
35°C
$914 Vol.
1%
36°C
$624 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$271 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$593 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$294 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Israel Meteorological Service and international ensembles converge on a peak temperature near 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 25, driven by a subtropical ridge maintaining clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly sea breezes, and typical late-summer insolation under high pressure. Recent 24-hour updates show minimal deviation from climatological norms of ~30–31°C highs, with humidity around 50–65% and no significant advection of hotter air masses. This consensus, alongside real-time observational trends, underpins the market’s 72.5% implied probability on 33°C as the most likely official maximum, while the 17.5% on 34°C captures residual model spread and potential afternoon warming if winds weaken.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$15,662End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Israel Meteorological Service and international ensembles converge on a peak temperature near 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 25, driven by a subtropical ridge maintaining clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly sea breezes, and typical late-summer insolation under high pressure. Recent 24-hour updates show minimal deviation from climatological norms of ~30–31°C highs, with humidity around 50–65% and no significant advection of hotter air masses. This consensus, alongside real-time observational trends, underpins the market’s 72.5% implied probability on 33°C as the most likely official maximum, while the 17.5% on 34°C captures residual model spread and potential afternoon warming if winds weaken.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,662End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the Israel Meteorological Service and international ensembles converge on a peak temperature near 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 25, driven by a subtropical ridge maintaining clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly sea breezes, and typical late-summer insolation under high pressure. Recent 24-hour updates show minimal deviation from climatological norms of ~30–31°C highs, with humidity around 50–65% and no significant advection of hotter air masses. This consensus, alongside real-time observational trends, underpins the market’s 72.5% implied probability on 33°C as the most likely official maximum, while the 17.5% on 34°C captures residual model spread and potential afternoon warming if winds weaken.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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