Strong model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts supports the market's 90.5% implied probability on a 28°C minimum for Tokyo on August 25, reflecting persistent high pressure from an amplified Pacific High that has sustained above-normal overnight temperatures across the Kanto region amid the 2026 summer heatwave. Recent observations show elevated dew points and limited nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with climatological patterns of record-warm August nights when subtropical ridging dominates. A sudden increase in cloud cover, localized showers, or a shift in steering flow could allow greater radiative cooling and push the actual low toward 26°C or below, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of such changes before the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
28°C 97%
26°C 2%
27°C 2%
25°C <1%
NEW
$10,485 Vol.
NEW
$10,485 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
97%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
28°C 97%
26°C 2%
27°C 2%
25°C <1%
NEW
$10,485 Vol.
NEW
$10,485 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$2,163 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$178 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$710 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$788 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$875 Vol.
1%
26°C
$825 Vol.
2%
27°C
$1,573 Vol.
2%
28°C
$1,244 Vol.
97%
29°C
$1,288 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$278 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$563 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts supports the market's 90.5% implied probability on a 28°C minimum for Tokyo on August 25, reflecting persistent high pressure from an amplified Pacific High that has sustained above-normal overnight temperatures across the Kanto region amid the 2026 summer heatwave. Recent observations show elevated dew points and limited nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with climatological patterns of record-warm August nights when subtropical ridging dominates. A sudden increase in cloud cover, localized showers, or a shift in steering flow could allow greater radiative cooling and push the actual low toward 26°C or below, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of such changes before the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$10,485End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts supports the market's 90.5% implied probability on a 28°C minimum for Tokyo on August 25, reflecting persistent high pressure from an amplified Pacific High that has sustained above-normal overnight temperatures across the Kanto region amid the 2026 summer heatwave. Recent observations show elevated dew points and limited nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with climatological patterns of record-warm August nights when subtropical ridging dominates. A sudden increase in cloud cover, localized showers, or a shift in steering flow could allow greater radiative cooling and push the actual low toward 26°C or below, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of such changes before the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,485End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts supports the market's 90.5% implied probability on a 28°C minimum for Tokyo on August 25, reflecting persistent high pressure from an amplified Pacific High that has sustained above-normal overnight temperatures across the Kanto region amid the 2026 summer heatwave. Recent observations show elevated dew points and limited nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with climatological patterns of record-warm August nights when subtropical ridging dominates. A sudden increase in cloud cover, localized showers, or a shift in steering flow could allow greater radiative cooling and push the actual low toward 26°C or below, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of such changes before the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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