Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a maximum of 33–34°C on August 26, consistent with trader emphasis on those outcomes amid the broader summer heat pattern. Persistent Pacific high pressure has driven above-normal temperatures across Honshu, with historical late-August averages near 31°C serving as the baseline. Key variables include potential scattered showers and increased cloud cover, which could limit afternoon heating and favor 33–34°C, versus clearer conditions allowing a push toward 35°C. Ensemble model spreads reflect typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any precipitation, keeping the 34–35°C range dominant while lower probabilities attach to extremes outside recent observational trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
34°C 35%
35°C 28%
33°C 17%
36°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
17%
34°C
35%
35°C
28%
36°C
14%
37°C
4%
38°C or higher
1%
34°C 35%
35°C 28%
33°C 17%
36°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
28°C or below
$1,254 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,354 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$12 Vol.
1%
31°C
$95 Vol.
2%
32°C
$263 Vol.
4%
33°C
$231 Vol.
17%
34°C
$228 Vol.
35%
35°C
$315 Vol.
28%
36°C
$641 Vol.
14%
37°C
$142 Vol.
4%
38°C or higher
$283 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a maximum of 33–34°C on August 26, consistent with trader emphasis on those outcomes amid the broader summer heat pattern. Persistent Pacific high pressure has driven above-normal temperatures across Honshu, with historical late-August averages near 31°C serving as the baseline. Key variables include potential scattered showers and increased cloud cover, which could limit afternoon heating and favor 33–34°C, versus clearer conditions allowing a push toward 35°C. Ensemble model spreads reflect typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any precipitation, keeping the 34–35°C range dominant while lower probabilities attach to extremes outside recent observational trends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,818End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a maximum of 33–34°C on August 26, consistent with trader emphasis on those outcomes amid the broader summer heat pattern. Persistent Pacific high pressure has driven above-normal temperatures across Honshu, with historical late-August averages near 31°C serving as the baseline. Key variables include potential scattered showers and increased cloud cover, which could limit afternoon heating and favor 33–34°C, versus clearer conditions allowing a push toward 35°C. Ensemble model spreads reflect typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any precipitation, keeping the 34–35°C range dominant while lower probabilities attach to extremes outside recent observational trends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,818End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a maximum of 33–34°C on August 26, consistent with trader emphasis on those outcomes amid the broader summer heat pattern. Persistent Pacific high pressure has driven above-normal temperatures across Honshu, with historical late-August averages near 31°C serving as the baseline. Key variables include potential scattered showers and increased cloud cover, which could limit afternoon heating and favor 33–34°C, versus clearer conditions allowing a push toward 35°C. Ensemble model spreads reflect typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any precipitation, keeping the 34–35°C range dominant while lower probabilities attach to extremes outside recent observational trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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