Strong trader consensus around a 27°C minimum for Shanghai on August 25 reflects ensemble forecasts from major models showing stable subtropical high pressure and light easterly flow overnight, with dew points supporting temperatures holding near 26–27°C. Typical late-August climatology places Shanghai nighttime lows in this range absent strong cold advection or heavy rain. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with no approaching typhoon or frontal system expected to alter the pattern. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected convective development or thicker cloud cover that enhances radiational cooling below 26°C, though current guidance assigns low probability to such shifts before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 25?
27°C 98%
26°C 8%
25°C 2%
23°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
8%
27°C
93%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 98%
26°C 8%
25°C 2%
23°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
$255 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$204 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$196 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$914 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,927 Vol.
8%
27°C
$2,415 Vol.
93%
28°C
$1,837 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$171 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$723 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$226 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$164 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong trader consensus around a 27°C minimum for Shanghai on August 25 reflects ensemble forecasts from major models showing stable subtropical high pressure and light easterly flow overnight, with dew points supporting temperatures holding near 26–27°C. Typical late-August climatology places Shanghai nighttime lows in this range absent strong cold advection or heavy rain. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with no approaching typhoon or frontal system expected to alter the pattern. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected convective development or thicker cloud cover that enhances radiational cooling below 26°C, though current guidance assigns low probability to such shifts before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$9,033End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong trader consensus around a 27°C minimum for Shanghai on August 25 reflects ensemble forecasts from major models showing stable subtropical high pressure and light easterly flow overnight, with dew points supporting temperatures holding near 26–27°C. Typical late-August climatology places Shanghai nighttime lows in this range absent strong cold advection or heavy rain. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with no approaching typhoon or frontal system expected to alter the pattern. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected convective development or thicker cloud cover that enhances radiational cooling below 26°C, though current guidance assigns low probability to such shifts before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,033End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong trader consensus around a 27°C minimum for Shanghai on August 25 reflects ensemble forecasts from major models showing stable subtropical high pressure and light easterly flow overnight, with dew points supporting temperatures holding near 26–27°C. Typical late-August climatology places Shanghai nighttime lows in this range absent strong cold advection or heavy rain. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with no approaching typhoon or frontal system expected to alter the pattern. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected convective development or thicker cloud cover that enhances radiational cooling below 26°C, though current guidance assigns low probability to such shifts before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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