Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Sao Paulo's overnight minimum on August 25 will likely fall between 13–16°C under persistent low-level cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and high humidity near 85–93%, limiting radiational cooling. This range aligns closely with the August climatological average low of roughly 12–13°C at the Mirante de Santana station. Subtle differences among leading outcomes stem from small variations in forecast boundary-layer mixing, exact cloud thickness, and dew-point depression, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. No strong polar air mass or clear-sky conditions are expected to push readings toward 11°C or below, nor is warmer advection likely to support 17°C or higher. Market-implied odds cluster tightly because updated model runs continue to show comparable cooling potential through sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
13°C 30%
14°C 28%
15°C 27%
16°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
3%
10°C
5%
11°C
8%
12°C
10%
13°C
30%
14°C
28%
15°C
27%
16°C
26%
17°C
14%
18°C
7%
19°C or higher
1%
13°C 30%
14°C 28%
15°C 27%
16°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
$155 Vol.
3%
10°C
$95 Vol.
5%
11°C
$9 Vol.
8%
12°C
$2 Vol.
10%
13°C
$0 Vol.
30%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$20 Vol.
26%
17°C
$90 Vol.
14%
18°C
$155 Vol.
7%
19°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Sao Paulo's overnight minimum on August 25 will likely fall between 13–16°C under persistent low-level cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and high humidity near 85–93%, limiting radiational cooling. This range aligns closely with the August climatological average low of roughly 12–13°C at the Mirante de Santana station. Subtle differences among leading outcomes stem from small variations in forecast boundary-layer mixing, exact cloud thickness, and dew-point depression, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. No strong polar air mass or clear-sky conditions are expected to push readings toward 11°C or below, nor is warmer advection likely to support 17°C or higher. Market-implied odds cluster tightly because updated model runs continue to show comparable cooling potential through sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$536End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Sao Paulo's overnight minimum on August 25 will likely fall between 13–16°C under persistent low-level cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and high humidity near 85–93%, limiting radiational cooling. This range aligns closely with the August climatological average low of roughly 12–13°C at the Mirante de Santana station. Subtle differences among leading outcomes stem from small variations in forecast boundary-layer mixing, exact cloud thickness, and dew-point depression, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. No strong polar air mass or clear-sky conditions are expected to push readings toward 11°C or below, nor is warmer advection likely to support 17°C or higher. Market-implied odds cluster tightly because updated model runs continue to show comparable cooling potential through sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$536End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Sao Paulo's overnight minimum on August 25 will likely fall between 13–16°C under persistent low-level cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and high humidity near 85–93%, limiting radiational cooling. This range aligns closely with the August climatological average low of roughly 12–13°C at the Mirante de Santana station. Subtle differences among leading outcomes stem from small variations in forecast boundary-layer mixing, exact cloud thickness, and dew-point depression, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. No strong polar air mass or clear-sky conditions are expected to push readings toward 11°C or below, nor is warmer advection likely to support 17°C or higher. Market-implied odds cluster tightly because updated model runs continue to show comparable cooling potential through sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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