Latest short-range model guidance from Brazil’s INMET and global ensembles indicates São Paulo’s maximum temperature on August 24 will peak at 18 °C under persistent southeasterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a passing cold front that suppresses afternoon warming. This places the day near or slightly below the late-August climatological average high of 21–22 °C and aligns with observed readings near 14–19 °C at Congonhas and Guarulhos stations. Traders have converged on the 18 °C outcome because the forecast envelope shows little realistic scope for exceeding that threshold before resolution. A slower-moving front or unexpected clearing could still push readings to 19–20 °C, while stronger cooling would be needed to drop the daily high below 18 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 24?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 24?
18°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$28,297 Vol.
$28,297 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
18°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$28,297 Vol.
$28,297 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
$49 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$162 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$3,240 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$7,780 Vol.
100%
19°C
$6,868 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,713 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,365 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,899 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,311 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$659 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$251 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range model guidance from Brazil’s INMET and global ensembles indicates São Paulo’s maximum temperature on August 24 will peak at 18 °C under persistent southeasterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a passing cold front that suppresses afternoon warming. This places the day near or slightly below the late-August climatological average high of 21–22 °C and aligns with observed readings near 14–19 °C at Congonhas and Guarulhos stations. Traders have converged on the 18 °C outcome because the forecast envelope shows little realistic scope for exceeding that threshold before resolution. A slower-moving front or unexpected clearing could still push readings to 19–20 °C, while stronger cooling would be needed to drop the daily high below 18 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$28,297End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range model guidance from Brazil’s INMET and global ensembles indicates São Paulo’s maximum temperature on August 24 will peak at 18 °C under persistent southeasterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a passing cold front that suppresses afternoon warming. This places the day near or slightly below the late-August climatological average high of 21–22 °C and aligns with observed readings near 14–19 °C at Congonhas and Guarulhos stations. Traders have converged on the 18 °C outcome because the forecast envelope shows little realistic scope for exceeding that threshold before resolution. A slower-moving front or unexpected clearing could still push readings to 19–20 °C, while stronger cooling would be needed to drop the daily high below 18 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,297End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest short-range model guidance from Brazil’s INMET and global ensembles indicates São Paulo’s maximum temperature on August 24 will peak at 18 °C under persistent southeasterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a passing cold front that suppresses afternoon warming. This places the day near or slightly below the late-August climatological average high of 21–22 °C and aligns with observed readings near 14–19 °C at Congonhas and Guarulhos stations. Traders have converged on the 18 °C outcome because the forecast envelope shows little realistic scope for exceeding that threshold before resolution. A slower-moving front or unexpected clearing could still push readings to 19–20 °C, while stronger cooling would be needed to drop the daily high below 18 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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