Recent forecast model runs show tight clustering around minimum temperatures of 26–27°C for Panama City on August 25, reflecting typical August wet-season conditions with high humidity and frequent cloud cover that limit nighttime radiative cooling. Consensus guidance from regional models highlights moderate uncertainty driven by variable shower timing and potential breaks in cloud cover, which could allow slightly greater cooling to the low-20s or keep readings nearer 28°C under persistent overcast skies. Historical climatology places August overnight lows near 24–26°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both the 26°C and 27°C outcomes while discounting extremes below 22°C or above 30°C absent major atmospheric shifts. Updated model ensembles expected later today will refine these probabilities ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Panama City on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Panama City on August 25?
21°C or below 44%
22°C 41%
26°C 38%
31°C or higher 38%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
44%
22°C
41%
23°C
8%
24°C
10%
25°C
24%
26°C
38%
27°C
36%
28°C
12%
29°C
14%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
38%
21°C or below 44%
22°C 41%
26°C 38%
31°C or higher 38%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$145 Vol.
44%
22°C
$145 Vol.
41%
23°C
$21 Vol.
8%
24°C
$0 Vol.
10%
25°C
$5 Vol.
24%
26°C
$0 Vol.
38%
27°C
$0 Vol.
36%
28°C
$5 Vol.
12%
29°C
$150 Vol.
14%
30°C
$135 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$135 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs show tight clustering around minimum temperatures of 26–27°C for Panama City on August 25, reflecting typical August wet-season conditions with high humidity and frequent cloud cover that limit nighttime radiative cooling. Consensus guidance from regional models highlights moderate uncertainty driven by variable shower timing and potential breaks in cloud cover, which could allow slightly greater cooling to the low-20s or keep readings nearer 28°C under persistent overcast skies. Historical climatology places August overnight lows near 24–26°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both the 26°C and 27°C outcomes while discounting extremes below 22°C or above 30°C absent major atmospheric shifts. Updated model ensembles expected later today will refine these probabilities ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$741End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs show tight clustering around minimum temperatures of 26–27°C for Panama City on August 25, reflecting typical August wet-season conditions with high humidity and frequent cloud cover that limit nighttime radiative cooling. Consensus guidance from regional models highlights moderate uncertainty driven by variable shower timing and potential breaks in cloud cover, which could allow slightly greater cooling to the low-20s or keep readings nearer 28°C under persistent overcast skies. Historical climatology places August overnight lows near 24–26°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both the 26°C and 27°C outcomes while discounting extremes below 22°C or above 30°C absent major atmospheric shifts. Updated model ensembles expected later today will refine these probabilities ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$741End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs show tight clustering around minimum temperatures of 26–27°C for Panama City on August 25, reflecting typical August wet-season conditions with high humidity and frequent cloud cover that limit nighttime radiative cooling. Consensus guidance from regional models highlights moderate uncertainty driven by variable shower timing and potential breaks in cloud cover, which could allow slightly greater cooling to the low-20s or keep readings nearer 28°C under persistent overcast skies. Historical climatology places August overnight lows near 24–26°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both the 26°C and 27°C outcomes while discounting extremes below 22°C or above 30°C absent major atmospheric shifts. Updated model ensembles expected later today will refine these probabilities ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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