Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs position overnight lows for New York City on August 25 in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driving the 48% implied probability on 66-67°F and 28.5% on 64-65°F. These outcomes reflect typical late-summer radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds near 5-10 mph and dew points in the mid-50s that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 63-68°F, consistent with the August climatological average low near 67°F at Central Park, while urban heat island effects prevent deeper cooling. Minor model spread on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing explains the smaller shares for 68-69°F and 62-63°F brackets, with resolution hinging on the official 24-hour minimum recorded by midnight EDT.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 25?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?
66-67°F 48%
64-65°F 29%
68-69°F 20%
62-63°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
29%
66-67°F
48%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
4%
72°F or higher
<1%
66-67°F 48%
64-65°F 29%
68-69°F 20%
62-63°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
53°F or below
$207 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$620 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$329 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$273 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$878 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$189 Vol.
7%
64-65°F
$267 Vol.
29%
66-67°F
$215 Vol.
48%
68-69°F
$228 Vol.
20%
70-71°F
$433 Vol.
4%
72°F or higher
$145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs position overnight lows for New York City on August 25 in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driving the 48% implied probability on 66-67°F and 28.5% on 64-65°F. These outcomes reflect typical late-summer radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds near 5-10 mph and dew points in the mid-50s that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 63-68°F, consistent with the August climatological average low near 67°F at Central Park, while urban heat island effects prevent deeper cooling. Minor model spread on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing explains the smaller shares for 68-69°F and 62-63°F brackets, with resolution hinging on the official 24-hour minimum recorded by midnight EDT.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$3,784End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs position overnight lows for New York City on August 25 in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driving the 48% implied probability on 66-67°F and 28.5% on 64-65°F. These outcomes reflect typical late-summer radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds near 5-10 mph and dew points in the mid-50s that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 63-68°F, consistent with the August climatological average low near 67°F at Central Park, while urban heat island effects prevent deeper cooling. Minor model spread on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing explains the smaller shares for 68-69°F and 62-63°F brackets, with resolution hinging on the official 24-hour minimum recorded by midnight EDT.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,784End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs position overnight lows for New York City on August 25 in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driving the 48% implied probability on 66-67°F and 28.5% on 64-65°F. These outcomes reflect typical late-summer radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds near 5-10 mph and dew points in the mid-50s that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 63-68°F, consistent with the August climatological average low near 67°F at Central Park, while urban heat island effects prevent deeper cooling. Minor model spread on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing explains the smaller shares for 68-69°F and 62-63°F brackets, with resolution hinging on the official 24-hour minimum recorded by midnight EDT.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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