Recent National Weather Service and model guidance pointed to a cooler-than-average overnight period for New York City on August 24, 2026, with clear to partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and dew points in the mid-50s to low 60s promoting efficient radiational cooling under a modified air mass. These conditions aligned with late-August climatology, where average lows near 67°F can shift several degrees based on cloud cover, moisture, and steering flow from upstream high pressure. Updated forecasts from the prior 24–48 hours narrowed expectations to the 68–72°F envelope, driving the sharp market concentration on 70–71°F as the mode. Lower-probability bins below 68°F reflected limited potential for stronger cooling if dew points fell further or winds remained calm, while warmer outcomes remained sidelined by the absence of a warmer maritime return flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 24?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 24?
70-71°F 85%
68-69°F 16%
56-57°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$12,453 Vol.
$12,453 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
85%
72-73°F
<1%
74°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 85%
68-69°F 16%
56-57°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$12,453 Vol.
$12,453 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
55°F or below
$323 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$523 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$1,656 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$680 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,464 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$1,242 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,000 Vol.
16%
70-71°F
$2,899 Vol.
85%
72-73°F
$1,552 Vol.
<1%
74°F or higher
$173 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance pointed to a cooler-than-average overnight period for New York City on August 24, 2026, with clear to partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and dew points in the mid-50s to low 60s promoting efficient radiational cooling under a modified air mass. These conditions aligned with late-August climatology, where average lows near 67°F can shift several degrees based on cloud cover, moisture, and steering flow from upstream high pressure. Updated forecasts from the prior 24–48 hours narrowed expectations to the 68–72°F envelope, driving the sharp market concentration on 70–71°F as the mode. Lower-probability bins below 68°F reflected limited potential for stronger cooling if dew points fell further or winds remained calm, while warmer outcomes remained sidelined by the absence of a warmer maritime return flow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$12,453End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance pointed to a cooler-than-average overnight period for New York City on August 24, 2026, with clear to partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and dew points in the mid-50s to low 60s promoting efficient radiational cooling under a modified air mass. These conditions aligned with late-August climatology, where average lows near 67°F can shift several degrees based on cloud cover, moisture, and steering flow from upstream high pressure. Updated forecasts from the prior 24–48 hours narrowed expectations to the 68–72°F envelope, driving the sharp market concentration on 70–71°F as the mode. Lower-probability bins below 68°F reflected limited potential for stronger cooling if dew points fell further or winds remained calm, while warmer outcomes remained sidelined by the absence of a warmer maritime return flow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,453End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance pointed to a cooler-than-average overnight period for New York City on August 24, 2026, with clear to partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and dew points in the mid-50s to low 60s promoting efficient radiational cooling under a modified air mass. These conditions aligned with late-August climatology, where average lows near 67°F can shift several degrees based on cloud cover, moisture, and steering flow from upstream high pressure. Updated forecasts from the prior 24–48 hours narrowed expectations to the 68–72°F envelope, driving the sharp market concentration on 70–71°F as the mode. Lower-probability bins below 68°F reflected limited potential for stronger cooling if dew points fell further or winds remained calm, while warmer outcomes remained sidelined by the absence of a warmer maritime return flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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