Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position mid-60s overnight lows as the dominant outcome for August 25, with traders heavily favoring the 66-67°F bin (48% implied probability) followed by 64-65°F (26%). A stable high-pressure ridge is delivering clear skies and light northwest winds of 5-10 mph, promoting efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs near 80°F. This aligns with late-August climatology, where average Central Park lows reach about 67°F under similar conditions. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with little chance of significant cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures overnight. Final resolution hinges on official observations from Central Park or LaGuardia once the calendar day closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 25?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?
66-67°F 48%
64-65°F 24%
68-69°F 18%
62-63°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
7%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
24%
66-67°F
48%
68-69°F
24%
70-71°F
1%
72°F or higher
<1%
66-67°F 48%
64-65°F 24%
68-69°F 18%
62-63°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
53°F or below
$257 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$620 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$334 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$369 Vol.
7%
60-61°F
$878 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$209 Vol.
9%
64-65°F
$274 Vol.
24%
66-67°F
$215 Vol.
48%
68-69°F
$273 Vol.
24%
70-71°F
$433 Vol.
1%
72°F or higher
$145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position mid-60s overnight lows as the dominant outcome for August 25, with traders heavily favoring the 66-67°F bin (48% implied probability) followed by 64-65°F (26%). A stable high-pressure ridge is delivering clear skies and light northwest winds of 5-10 mph, promoting efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs near 80°F. This aligns with late-August climatology, where average Central Park lows reach about 67°F under similar conditions. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with little chance of significant cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures overnight. Final resolution hinges on official observations from Central Park or LaGuardia once the calendar day closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$3,982End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position mid-60s overnight lows as the dominant outcome for August 25, with traders heavily favoring the 66-67°F bin (48% implied probability) followed by 64-65°F (26%). A stable high-pressure ridge is delivering clear skies and light northwest winds of 5-10 mph, promoting efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs near 80°F. This aligns with late-August climatology, where average Central Park lows reach about 67°F under similar conditions. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with little chance of significant cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures overnight. Final resolution hinges on official observations from Central Park or LaGuardia once the calendar day closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,982End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position mid-60s overnight lows as the dominant outcome for August 25, with traders heavily favoring the 66-67°F bin (48% implied probability) followed by 64-65°F (26%). A stable high-pressure ridge is delivering clear skies and light northwest winds of 5-10 mph, promoting efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs near 80°F. This aligns with late-August climatology, where average Central Park lows reach about 67°F under similar conditions. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with little chance of significant cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures overnight. Final resolution hinges on official observations from Central Park or LaGuardia once the calendar day closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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