National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park show a mostly clear Tuesday night with light northwest winds and lows near 64-65°F, aligning closely with the market's top two bins at 37.5% and 28.5%. Clear skies promote strong radiative cooling after daytime highs near 80°F, while modest dew points around 57°F and urban heat retention limit further drops below the mid-60s. Model consensus favors this range over the historical 67°F average low, though slight variations in overnight cloud cover or wind could shift the minimum by 1-2°F. The tight clustering of probabilities reflects genuine uncertainty in the final hourly reading before sunrise on August 25.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 25?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?
66-67°F 48%
64-65°F 29%
68-69°F 20%
62-63°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
29%
66-67°F
48%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
4%
72°F or higher
1%
66-67°F 48%
64-65°F 29%
68-69°F 20%
62-63°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
53°F or below
$107 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$620 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$329 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$273 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$878 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$189 Vol.
7%
64-65°F
$267 Vol.
29%
66-67°F
$215 Vol.
48%
68-69°F
$203 Vol.
20%
70-71°F
$433 Vol.
4%
72°F or higher
$145 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park show a mostly clear Tuesday night with light northwest winds and lows near 64-65°F, aligning closely with the market's top two bins at 37.5% and 28.5%. Clear skies promote strong radiative cooling after daytime highs near 80°F, while modest dew points around 57°F and urban heat retention limit further drops below the mid-60s. Model consensus favors this range over the historical 67°F average low, though slight variations in overnight cloud cover or wind could shift the minimum by 1-2°F. The tight clustering of probabilities reflects genuine uncertainty in the final hourly reading before sunrise on August 25.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$3,658End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park show a mostly clear Tuesday night with light northwest winds and lows near 64-65°F, aligning closely with the market's top two bins at 37.5% and 28.5%. Clear skies promote strong radiative cooling after daytime highs near 80°F, while modest dew points around 57°F and urban heat retention limit further drops below the mid-60s. Model consensus favors this range over the historical 67°F average low, though slight variations in overnight cloud cover or wind could shift the minimum by 1-2°F. The tight clustering of probabilities reflects genuine uncertainty in the final hourly reading before sunrise on August 25.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,658End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park show a mostly clear Tuesday night with light northwest winds and lows near 64-65°F, aligning closely with the market's top two bins at 37.5% and 28.5%. Clear skies promote strong radiative cooling after daytime highs near 80°F, while modest dew points around 57°F and urban heat retention limit further drops below the mid-60s. Model consensus favors this range over the historical 67°F average low, though slight variations in overnight cloud cover or wind could shift the minimum by 1-2°F. The tight clustering of probabilities reflects genuine uncertainty in the final hourly reading before sunrise on August 25.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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