Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate Milan’s overnight low on August 25 will likely settle near 18–20 °C under clear skies and light easterly flow, supporting the market’s leading 20 °C outcome at 40.5 % implied probability. Subtle model differences in boundary-layer cooling, urban heat retention, and exact timing of any thin cloud cover create the tight clustering around 16–20 °C (each near 27.5 %), while the 34 % chance assigned to 24 °C or higher reflects residual uncertainty from daytime heat carryover. Historical late-August minima average 18–19 °C, but small shifts in dew-point depression or wind speed can move the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C at the official station. Updated model runs and observational adjustments over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for price movement ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 25?
18°C 28%
16°C 28%
17°C 28%
19°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
28%
17°C
28%
18°C
28%
19°C
28%
20°C
41%
21°C
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
7%
24°C or higher
-
18°C 28%
16°C 28%
17°C 28%
19°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
14°C or below
$342 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$26 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
28%
18°C
$0 Vol.
28%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$84 Vol.
41%
21°C
$63 Vol.
2%
22°C
$5 Vol.
8%
23°C
$135 Vol.
7%
24°C or higher
$74 Vol.
-
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate Milan’s overnight low on August 25 will likely settle near 18–20 °C under clear skies and light easterly flow, supporting the market’s leading 20 °C outcome at 40.5 % implied probability. Subtle model differences in boundary-layer cooling, urban heat retention, and exact timing of any thin cloud cover create the tight clustering around 16–20 °C (each near 27.5 %), while the 34 % chance assigned to 24 °C or higher reflects residual uncertainty from daytime heat carryover. Historical late-August minima average 18–19 °C, but small shifts in dew-point depression or wind speed can move the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C at the official station. Updated model runs and observational adjustments over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for price movement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$755End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate Milan’s overnight low on August 25 will likely settle near 18–20 °C under clear skies and light easterly flow, supporting the market’s leading 20 °C outcome at 40.5 % implied probability. Subtle model differences in boundary-layer cooling, urban heat retention, and exact timing of any thin cloud cover create the tight clustering around 16–20 °C (each near 27.5 %), while the 34 % chance assigned to 24 °C or higher reflects residual uncertainty from daytime heat carryover. Historical late-August minima average 18–19 °C, but small shifts in dew-point depression or wind speed can move the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C at the official station. Updated model runs and observational adjustments over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for price movement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$755End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate Milan’s overnight low on August 25 will likely settle near 18–20 °C under clear skies and light easterly flow, supporting the market’s leading 20 °C outcome at 40.5 % implied probability. Subtle model differences in boundary-layer cooling, urban heat retention, and exact timing of any thin cloud cover create the tight clustering around 16–20 °C (each near 27.5 %), while the 34 % chance assigned to 24 °C or higher reflects residual uncertainty from daytime heat carryover. Historical late-August minima average 18–19 °C, but small shifts in dew-point depression or wind speed can move the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C at the official station. Updated model runs and observational adjustments over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for price movement ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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