Current forecast consensus points to an overnight low of 13–15°C on August 25 in Mexico City, with trader probabilities clustered tightly around these values because of comparable model guidance on cloud cover and humidity. Persistent cloudiness and scattered showers from moist tropical air are expected to suppress strong radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation, where thin atmosphere normally amplifies nocturnal temperature drops. Differences among leading outcomes hinge on small variations in predicted cloud thickness, wind speed, and dew-point depression overnight; clearer breaks could allow readings near 13°C or below, while thicker clouds favor 15°C. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and fresh runs from global models will likely refine these probabilities before the minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 25?
14°C 50%
17°C 49%
18°C 42%
15°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
6%
10°C
7%
11°C
24%
12°C
26%
13°C
27%
14°C
39%
15°C
31%
16°C
9%
17°C
49%
18°C
42%
19°C or higher
1%
14°C 50%
17°C 49%
18°C 42%
15°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
$15 Vol.
6%
10°C
$80 Vol.
7%
11°C
$21 Vol.
24%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$39 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
31%
16°C
$60 Vol.
9%
17°C
$85 Vol.
49%
18°C
$135 Vol.
42%
19°C or higher
$135 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus points to an overnight low of 13–15°C on August 25 in Mexico City, with trader probabilities clustered tightly around these values because of comparable model guidance on cloud cover and humidity. Persistent cloudiness and scattered showers from moist tropical air are expected to suppress strong radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation, where thin atmosphere normally amplifies nocturnal temperature drops. Differences among leading outcomes hinge on small variations in predicted cloud thickness, wind speed, and dew-point depression overnight; clearer breaks could allow readings near 13°C or below, while thicker clouds favor 15°C. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and fresh runs from global models will likely refine these probabilities before the minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$570End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus points to an overnight low of 13–15°C on August 25 in Mexico City, with trader probabilities clustered tightly around these values because of comparable model guidance on cloud cover and humidity. Persistent cloudiness and scattered showers from moist tropical air are expected to suppress strong radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation, where thin atmosphere normally amplifies nocturnal temperature drops. Differences among leading outcomes hinge on small variations in predicted cloud thickness, wind speed, and dew-point depression overnight; clearer breaks could allow readings near 13°C or below, while thicker clouds favor 15°C. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and fresh runs from global models will likely refine these probabilities before the minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$570End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus points to an overnight low of 13–15°C on August 25 in Mexico City, with trader probabilities clustered tightly around these values because of comparable model guidance on cloud cover and humidity. Persistent cloudiness and scattered showers from moist tropical air are expected to suppress strong radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation, where thin atmosphere normally amplifies nocturnal temperature drops. Differences among leading outcomes hinge on small variations in predicted cloud thickness, wind speed, and dew-point depression overnight; clearer breaks could allow readings near 13°C or below, while thicker clouds favor 15°C. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and fresh runs from global models will likely refine these probabilities before the minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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