**Traders see the lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 26 as most likely falling between 25–27 °C, with these three outcomes commanding roughly equal market shares near 30 % each.** This tight clustering reflects current numerical weather model guidance showing a minimum in that narrow band under typical late-August conditions: a humid subtropical climate with afternoon thundershowers, moderate cloud cover, and light winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Official extended forecasts place the expected low near 26–27 °C, but small shifts in timing or intensity of overnight rain or increased low-level moisture can easily nudge the actual minimum one degree lower or keep it slightly higher. Historical climatology supports this range, as August nighttime lows in Chengdu average 24–26 °C and rarely deviate sharply without a strong frontal passage or clear-sky anomaly—neither of which is currently indicated. With resolution just two days away, the next model runs and any updated China Meteorological Administration guidance will be the primary drivers that could sharpen or shift the market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 26?
22°C 49%
23°C 47%
26°C 32%
27°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
6%
22°C
49%
23°C
47%
24°C
27%
25°C
29%
26°C
32%
27°C
30%
28°C
1%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
1%
22°C 49%
23°C 47%
26°C 32%
27°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
20°C or below
$145 Vol.
2%
21°C
$15 Vol.
6%
22°C
$15 Vol.
49%
23°C
$150 Vol.
47%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
29%
26°C
$0 Vol.
32%
27°C
$0 Vol.
30%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$105 Vol.
7%
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders see the lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 26 as most likely falling between 25–27 °C, with these three outcomes commanding roughly equal market shares near 30 % each.**
This tight clustering reflects current numerical weather model guidance showing a minimum in that narrow band under typical late-August conditions: a humid subtropical climate with afternoon thundershowers, moderate cloud cover, and light winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Official extended forecasts place the expected low near 26–27 °C, but small shifts in timing or intensity of overnight rain or increased low-level moisture can easily nudge the actual minimum one degree lower or keep it slightly higher. Historical climatology supports this range, as August nighttime lows in Chengdu average 24–26 °C and rarely deviate sharply without a strong frontal passage or clear-sky anomaly—neither of which is currently indicated. With resolution just two days away, the next model runs and any updated China Meteorological Administration guidance will be the primary drivers that could sharpen or shift the market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$450End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders see the lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 26 as most likely falling between 25–27 °C, with these three outcomes commanding roughly equal market shares near 30 % each.**
This tight clustering reflects current numerical weather model guidance showing a minimum in that narrow band under typical late-August conditions: a humid subtropical climate with afternoon thundershowers, moderate cloud cover, and light winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Official extended forecasts place the expected low near 26–27 °C, but small shifts in timing or intensity of overnight rain or increased low-level moisture can easily nudge the actual minimum one degree lower or keep it slightly higher. Historical climatology supports this range, as August nighttime lows in Chengdu average 24–26 °C and rarely deviate sharply without a strong frontal passage or clear-sky anomaly—neither of which is currently indicated. With resolution just two days away, the next model runs and any updated China Meteorological Administration guidance will be the primary drivers that could sharpen or shift the market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$450End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Traders see the lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 26 as most likely falling between 25–27 °C, with these three outcomes commanding roughly equal market shares near 30 % each.** This tight clustering reflects current numerical weather model guidance showing a minimum in that narrow band under typical late-August conditions: a humid subtropical climate with afternoon thundershowers, moderate cloud cover, and light winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Official extended forecasts place the expected low near 26–27 °C, but small shifts in timing or intensity of overnight rain or increased low-level moisture can easily nudge the actual minimum one degree lower or keep it slightly higher. Historical climatology supports this range, as August nighttime lows in Chengdu average 24–26 °C and rarely deviate sharply without a strong frontal passage or clear-sky anomaly—neither of which is currently indicated. With resolution just two days away, the next model runs and any updated China Meteorological Administration guidance will be the primary drivers that could sharpen or shift the market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions