Trader sentiment in the Chengdu minimum temperature market centers on 24°C as the consensus outcome because late-August climatology and recent forecast model runs from regional meteorological agencies consistently project overnight lows in the 23–25°C range amid typical monsoon humidity and light winds. Subtropical conditions in the Sichuan Basin often moderate nighttime cooling, with cloud cover or scattered showers on August 23–24 further limiting radiative heat loss and keeping the official station reading near the middle of that band. The secondary 23°C probability reflects residual uncertainty from possible localized cooling if clearer skies developed, while 26°C remains negligible given the absence of supporting warm-air advection signals. Traders weigh these factors against historical baselines showing average August minima near 22–24°C, producing skin-in-the-game odds that aggregate evolving observational data ahead of final China Meteorological Administration verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 24?
23°C 47%
26°C <1%
24°C 0
$6,834 Vol.
$6,834 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C
47%
24°C
-
26°C
<1%
23°C 47%
26°C <1%
24°C 0
$6,834 Vol.
$6,834 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C
$126 Vol.
47%
24°C
$949 Vol.
-
26°C
$305 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment in the Chengdu minimum temperature market centers on 24°C as the consensus outcome because late-August climatology and recent forecast model runs from regional meteorological agencies consistently project overnight lows in the 23–25°C range amid typical monsoon humidity and light winds. Subtropical conditions in the Sichuan Basin often moderate nighttime cooling, with cloud cover or scattered showers on August 23–24 further limiting radiative heat loss and keeping the official station reading near the middle of that band. The secondary 23°C probability reflects residual uncertainty from possible localized cooling if clearer skies developed, while 26°C remains negligible given the absence of supporting warm-air advection signals. Traders weigh these factors against historical baselines showing average August minima near 22–24°C, producing skin-in-the-game odds that aggregate evolving observational data ahead of final China Meteorological Administration verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$6,834End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment in the Chengdu minimum temperature market centers on 24°C as the consensus outcome because late-August climatology and recent forecast model runs from regional meteorological agencies consistently project overnight lows in the 23–25°C range amid typical monsoon humidity and light winds. Subtropical conditions in the Sichuan Basin often moderate nighttime cooling, with cloud cover or scattered showers on August 23–24 further limiting radiative heat loss and keeping the official station reading near the middle of that band. The secondary 23°C probability reflects residual uncertainty from possible localized cooling if clearer skies developed, while 26°C remains negligible given the absence of supporting warm-air advection signals. Traders weigh these factors against historical baselines showing average August minima near 22–24°C, producing skin-in-the-game odds that aggregate evolving observational data ahead of final China Meteorological Administration verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,834End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment in the Chengdu minimum temperature market centers on 24°C as the consensus outcome because late-August climatology and recent forecast model runs from regional meteorological agencies consistently project overnight lows in the 23–25°C range amid typical monsoon humidity and light winds. Subtropical conditions in the Sichuan Basin often moderate nighttime cooling, with cloud cover or scattered showers on August 23–24 further limiting radiative heat loss and keeping the official station reading near the middle of that band. The secondary 23°C probability reflects residual uncertainty from possible localized cooling if clearer skies developed, while 26°C remains negligible given the absence of supporting warm-air advection signals. Traders weigh these factors against historical baselines showing average August minima near 22–24°C, producing skin-in-the-game odds that aggregate evolving observational data ahead of final China Meteorological Administration verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions