**Traders assign the highest implied probability (74%) to a 26°C minimum temperature in Chengdu on August 25, 2026, followed by 25°C (26.5%) and 24°C (22.5%), reflecting consensus from multiple forecast models showing overnight lows clustered in that narrow range.** Chengdu’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity and a basin topography that limits nocturnal cooling, but scattered showers and increased cloud cover near the end of the “San Fu” hottest period are moderating temperatures. Official and private forecasts consistently project a daily low of 24–26°C, with several sources citing 25°C as the most likely value under partly cloudy to overcast conditions and light winds that reduce radiative heat loss. Recent rainfall episodes and the shift toward more frequent convective activity have prevented the higher overnight minima seen earlier in the month, while model runs show limited disagreement on the exact cooling rate. Real-time data from surface stations will resolve the market once the full 24-hour period concludes, with any unexpected clearing skies or heavier localized rain capable of shifting the final reading by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
26°C 97%
24°C 47%
25°C 22%
23°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
4%
24°C
47%
25°C
22%
26°C
77%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 97%
24°C 47%
25°C 22%
23°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
$494 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$325 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$260 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$139 Vol.
4%
24°C
$71 Vol.
47%
25°C
$76 Vol.
22%
26°C
$143 Vol.
77%
27°C
$326 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$214 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$814 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$275 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders assign the highest implied probability (74%) to a 26°C minimum temperature in Chengdu on August 25, 2026, followed by 25°C (26.5%) and 24°C (22.5%), reflecting consensus from multiple forecast models showing overnight lows clustered in that narrow range.**
Chengdu’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity and a basin topography that limits nocturnal cooling, but scattered showers and increased cloud cover near the end of the “San Fu” hottest period are moderating temperatures. Official and private forecasts consistently project a daily low of 24–26°C, with several sources citing 25°C as the most likely value under partly cloudy to overcast conditions and light winds that reduce radiative heat loss. Recent rainfall episodes and the shift toward more frequent convective activity have prevented the higher overnight minima seen earlier in the month, while model runs show limited disagreement on the exact cooling rate.
Real-time data from surface stations will resolve the market once the full 24-hour period concludes, with any unexpected clearing skies or heavier localized rain capable of shifting the final reading by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,137End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders assign the highest implied probability (74%) to a 26°C minimum temperature in Chengdu on August 25, 2026, followed by 25°C (26.5%) and 24°C (22.5%), reflecting consensus from multiple forecast models showing overnight lows clustered in that narrow range.**
Chengdu’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity and a basin topography that limits nocturnal cooling, but scattered showers and increased cloud cover near the end of the “San Fu” hottest period are moderating temperatures. Official and private forecasts consistently project a daily low of 24–26°C, with several sources citing 25°C as the most likely value under partly cloudy to overcast conditions and light winds that reduce radiative heat loss. Recent rainfall episodes and the shift toward more frequent convective activity have prevented the higher overnight minima seen earlier in the month, while model runs show limited disagreement on the exact cooling rate.
Real-time data from surface stations will resolve the market once the full 24-hour period concludes, with any unexpected clearing skies or heavier localized rain capable of shifting the final reading by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,137End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Traders assign the highest implied probability (74%) to a 26°C minimum temperature in Chengdu on August 25, 2026, followed by 25°C (26.5%) and 24°C (22.5%), reflecting consensus from multiple forecast models showing overnight lows clustered in that narrow range.** Chengdu’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity and a basin topography that limits nocturnal cooling, but scattered showers and increased cloud cover near the end of the “San Fu” hottest period are moderating temperatures. Official and private forecasts consistently project a daily low of 24–26°C, with several sources citing 25°C as the most likely value under partly cloudy to overcast conditions and light winds that reduce radiative heat loss. Recent rainfall episodes and the shift toward more frequent convective activity have prevented the higher overnight minima seen earlier in the month, while model runs show limited disagreement on the exact cooling rate. Real-time data from surface stations will resolve the market once the full 24-hour period concludes, with any unexpected clearing skies or heavier localized rain capable of shifting the final reading by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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