Recent forecast guidance from sources like TimeandDate and AccuWeather points to a minimum temperature near 25–26°C in Chengdu on August 26, driven by typical late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin where high humidity and frequent thundershowers limit nighttime radiative cooling. Persistent moisture from regional monsoon influences, combined with the basin's topographic trapping of warm air, sustains elevated overnight lows around the climatological 22–26°C range, while variable cloud cover introduces model uncertainty in exact minimums. Urban heat island effects further moderate cooling in the city center. The closely matched market-implied odds across 25–27°C outcomes reflect traders' weighting of these variables ahead of updated model runs and overnight observations that could shift resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 26?
22°C 48%
23°C 46%
25°C 29%
26°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
6%
22°C
48%
23°C
46%
24°C
26%
25°C
29%
26°C
29%
27°C
29%
28°C
1%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
1%
22°C 48%
23°C 46%
25°C 29%
26°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
20°C or below
$145 Vol.
2%
21°C
$15 Vol.
6%
22°C
$15 Vol.
48%
23°C
$150 Vol.
46%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$0 Vol.
29%
26°C
$0 Vol.
29%
27°C
$0 Vol.
29%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$105 Vol.
7%
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources like TimeandDate and AccuWeather points to a minimum temperature near 25–26°C in Chengdu on August 26, driven by typical late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin where high humidity and frequent thundershowers limit nighttime radiative cooling. Persistent moisture from regional monsoon influences, combined with the basin's topographic trapping of warm air, sustains elevated overnight lows around the climatological 22–26°C range, while variable cloud cover introduces model uncertainty in exact minimums. Urban heat island effects further moderate cooling in the city center. The closely matched market-implied odds across 25–27°C outcomes reflect traders' weighting of these variables ahead of updated model runs and overnight observations that could shift resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$450End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources like TimeandDate and AccuWeather points to a minimum temperature near 25–26°C in Chengdu on August 26, driven by typical late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin where high humidity and frequent thundershowers limit nighttime radiative cooling. Persistent moisture from regional monsoon influences, combined with the basin's topographic trapping of warm air, sustains elevated overnight lows around the climatological 22–26°C range, while variable cloud cover introduces model uncertainty in exact minimums. Urban heat island effects further moderate cooling in the city center. The closely matched market-implied odds across 25–27°C outcomes reflect traders' weighting of these variables ahead of updated model runs and overnight observations that could shift resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$450End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from sources like TimeandDate and AccuWeather points to a minimum temperature near 25–26°C in Chengdu on August 26, driven by typical late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin where high humidity and frequent thundershowers limit nighttime radiative cooling. Persistent moisture from regional monsoon influences, combined with the basin's topographic trapping of warm air, sustains elevated overnight lows around the climatological 22–26°C range, while variable cloud cover introduces model uncertainty in exact minimums. Urban heat island effects further moderate cooling in the city center. The closely matched market-implied odds across 25–27°C outcomes reflect traders' weighting of these variables ahead of updated model runs and overnight observations that could shift resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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