Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Office and international models indicate a minimum temperature on August 25 likely between 24–27 °C, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected overnight that limit radiative cooling while maintaining high humidity. This aligns with the post-Chushu transition out of peak summer heat, where cloud cover and precipitation reduce daytime maxima to around 33–35 °C and support nighttime lows near 25–26 °C. Ensemble consensus across sources shows limited variance in steering patterns or moisture, positioning 26 °C as the modal outcome with 25 °C close behind; cooler 24 °C scenarios would require stronger localized rainfall or clearer skies than currently projected. Updated model runs and local observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
25°C 34%
24°C 25%
23°C 3%
22°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
25%
25°C
34%
26°C
62%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 34%
24°C 25%
23°C 3%
22°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
$300 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$130 Vol.
3%
24°C
$65 Vol.
25%
25°C
$0 Vol.
34%
26°C
$107 Vol.
62%
27°C
$325 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$214 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$814 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$275 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Office and international models indicate a minimum temperature on August 25 likely between 24–27 °C, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected overnight that limit radiative cooling while maintaining high humidity. This aligns with the post-Chushu transition out of peak summer heat, where cloud cover and precipitation reduce daytime maxima to around 33–35 °C and support nighttime lows near 25–26 °C. Ensemble consensus across sources shows limited variance in steering patterns or moisture, positioning 26 °C as the modal outcome with 25 °C close behind; cooler 24 °C scenarios would require stronger localized rainfall or clearer skies than currently projected. Updated model runs and local observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,456End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Office and international models indicate a minimum temperature on August 25 likely between 24–27 °C, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected overnight that limit radiative cooling while maintaining high humidity. This aligns with the post-Chushu transition out of peak summer heat, where cloud cover and precipitation reduce daytime maxima to around 33–35 °C and support nighttime lows near 25–26 °C. Ensemble consensus across sources shows limited variance in steering patterns or moisture, positioning 26 °C as the modal outcome with 25 °C close behind; cooler 24 °C scenarios would require stronger localized rainfall or clearer skies than currently projected. Updated model runs and local observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,456End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Office and international models indicate a minimum temperature on August 25 likely between 24–27 °C, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected overnight that limit radiative cooling while maintaining high humidity. This aligns with the post-Chushu transition out of peak summer heat, where cloud cover and precipitation reduce daytime maxima to around 33–35 °C and support nighttime lows near 25–26 °C. Ensemble consensus across sources shows limited variance in steering patterns or moisture, positioning 26 °C as the modal outcome with 25 °C close behind; cooler 24 °C scenarios would require stronger localized rainfall or clearer skies than currently projected. Updated model runs and local observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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