**Trader sentiment for Chengdu's August 25 minimum temperature reflects a tight cluster around 23–26°C (combined ~94% probability), driven by late-summer monsoon conditions in the Sichuan Basin.** Official local forecasts and multiple models (including ECMWF and GFS runs) point to a minimum near 24–25°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms expected overnight. High humidity (often 65–80%) and weak winds limit radiative cooling, while any heavier rain episodes can suppress the low by 1–2°C through enhanced cloud cover and evaporative effects. The near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes, with 23°C close behind, stems from small differences in forecast precipitation timing and intensity: earlier or stronger convection favors the lower end, while clearer breaks allow slightly warmer nights. Chengdu's urban heat island and basin topography add further variability. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest model consensus and any updated Chengdu Meteorological Observatory guidance on convective activity. Extremes below 23°C or above 26°C remain low-probability given the current pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
24°C 34%
25°C 34%
23°C 34%
22°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
34%
24°C
34%
25°C
34%
26°C
54%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 34%
25°C 34%
23°C 34%
22°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
$274 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$34 Vol.
34%
24°C
$0 Vol.
34%
25°C
$0 Vol.
34%
26°C
$51 Vol.
54%
27°C
$325 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$214 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$814 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$275 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Chengdu's August 25 minimum temperature reflects a tight cluster around 23–26°C (combined ~94% probability), driven by late-summer monsoon conditions in the Sichuan Basin.** Official local forecasts and multiple models (including ECMWF and GFS runs) point to a minimum near 24–25°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms expected overnight. High humidity (often 65–80%) and weak winds limit radiative cooling, while any heavier rain episodes can suppress the low by 1–2°C through enhanced cloud cover and evaporative effects.
The near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes, with 23°C close behind, stems from small differences in forecast precipitation timing and intensity: earlier or stronger convection favors the lower end, while clearer breaks allow slightly warmer nights. Chengdu's urban heat island and basin topography add further variability. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest model consensus and any updated Chengdu Meteorological Observatory guidance on convective activity. Extremes below 23°C or above 26°C remain low-probability given the current pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,213End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Chengdu's August 25 minimum temperature reflects a tight cluster around 23–26°C (combined ~94% probability), driven by late-summer monsoon conditions in the Sichuan Basin.** Official local forecasts and multiple models (including ECMWF and GFS runs) point to a minimum near 24–25°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms expected overnight. High humidity (often 65–80%) and weak winds limit radiative cooling, while any heavier rain episodes can suppress the low by 1–2°C through enhanced cloud cover and evaporative effects.
The near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes, with 23°C close behind, stems from small differences in forecast precipitation timing and intensity: earlier or stronger convection favors the lower end, while clearer breaks allow slightly warmer nights. Chengdu's urban heat island and basin topography add further variability. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest model consensus and any updated Chengdu Meteorological Observatory guidance on convective activity. Extremes below 23°C or above 26°C remain low-probability given the current pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,213End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Chengdu's August 25 minimum temperature reflects a tight cluster around 23–26°C (combined ~94% probability), driven by late-summer monsoon conditions in the Sichuan Basin.** Official local forecasts and multiple models (including ECMWF and GFS runs) point to a minimum near 24–25°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms expected overnight. High humidity (often 65–80%) and weak winds limit radiative cooling, while any heavier rain episodes can suppress the low by 1–2°C through enhanced cloud cover and evaporative effects. The near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes, with 23°C close behind, stems from small differences in forecast precipitation timing and intensity: earlier or stronger convection favors the lower end, while clearer breaks allow slightly warmer nights. Chengdu's urban heat island and basin topography add further variability. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest model consensus and any updated Chengdu Meteorological Observatory guidance on convective activity. Extremes below 23°C or above 26°C remain low-probability given the current pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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