Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs for Tokyo on August 25 project a daytime maximum near 33–34°C under stable summer high-pressure conditions, with modest convective activity that could cap peaks or allow brief 35°C spikes depending on cloud cover and urban heat-island effects. This aligns with late-August climatology of 31–33°C averages while incorporating current sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture that limit extreme outliers above 36°C. Trader consensus around these central outcomes reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical 24 hours before resolution, when updated morning soundings and boundary-layer observations from the Tokyo metropolitan area will refine the final recorded high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
34°C 39%
35°C 29%
33°C 21%
36°C 9%
NEW
$40,708 Vol.
NEW
$40,708 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
4%
33°C
21%
34°C
39%
35°C
29%
36°C
9%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 39%
35°C 29%
33°C 21%
36°C 9%
NEW
$40,708 Vol.
NEW
$40,708 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
29°C or below
$1,990 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$577 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,331 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,524 Vol.
4%
33°C
$3,957 Vol.
21%
34°C
$5,944 Vol.
39%
35°C
$2,908 Vol.
29%
36°C
$2,542 Vol.
9%
37°C
$2,016 Vol.
1%
38°C
$987 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$16,972 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs for Tokyo on August 25 project a daytime maximum near 33–34°C under stable summer high-pressure conditions, with modest convective activity that could cap peaks or allow brief 35°C spikes depending on cloud cover and urban heat-island effects. This aligns with late-August climatology of 31–33°C averages while incorporating current sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture that limit extreme outliers above 36°C. Trader consensus around these central outcomes reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical 24 hours before resolution, when updated morning soundings and boundary-layer observations from the Tokyo metropolitan area will refine the final recorded high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$40,708End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs for Tokyo on August 25 project a daytime maximum near 33–34°C under stable summer high-pressure conditions, with modest convective activity that could cap peaks or allow brief 35°C spikes depending on cloud cover and urban heat-island effects. This aligns with late-August climatology of 31–33°C averages while incorporating current sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture that limit extreme outliers above 36°C. Trader consensus around these central outcomes reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical 24 hours before resolution, when updated morning soundings and boundary-layer observations from the Tokyo metropolitan area will refine the final recorded high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40,708End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs for Tokyo on August 25 project a daytime maximum near 33–34°C under stable summer high-pressure conditions, with modest convective activity that could cap peaks or allow brief 35°C spikes depending on cloud cover and urban heat-island effects. This aligns with late-August climatology of 31–33°C averages while incorporating current sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture that limit extreme outliers above 36°C. Trader consensus around these central outcomes reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical 24 hours before resolution, when updated morning soundings and boundary-layer observations from the Tokyo metropolitan area will refine the final recorded high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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