Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 24 project a daytime high near 33–34 °C amid typical late-summer subtropical high-pressure conditions, low precipitation probability, and moderate southerly flow that limits rapid cooling. This consensus from numerical weather models underpins the market’s near-certain implied probability for 33 °C, reflecting observed urban heat-island amplification and climatological baselines where August maxima frequently reach this range. Minor deviations remain possible from localized convective development or slight forecast adjustments in final model runs, yet the narrow uncertainty window on resolution day strongly favors the leading outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
33°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$44,990 Vol.
$44,990 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$44,990 Vol.
$44,990 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
$1,424 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,422 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,560 Vol.
No
28°C
$779 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,731 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,061 Vol.
No
31°C
$6,959 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,901 Vol.
No
33°C
$7,277 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$6,447 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$7,429 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 24 project a daytime high near 33–34 °C amid typical late-summer subtropical high-pressure conditions, low precipitation probability, and moderate southerly flow that limits rapid cooling. This consensus from numerical weather models underpins the market’s near-certain implied probability for 33 °C, reflecting observed urban heat-island amplification and climatological baselines where August maxima frequently reach this range. Minor deviations remain possible from localized convective development or slight forecast adjustments in final model runs, yet the narrow uncertainty window on resolution day strongly favors the leading outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$44,990End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 24 project a daytime high near 33–34 °C amid typical late-summer subtropical high-pressure conditions, low precipitation probability, and moderate southerly flow that limits rapid cooling. This consensus from numerical weather models underpins the market’s near-certain implied probability for 33 °C, reflecting observed urban heat-island amplification and climatological baselines where August maxima frequently reach this range. Minor deviations remain possible from localized convective development or slight forecast adjustments in final model runs, yet the narrow uncertainty window on resolution day strongly favors the leading outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$44,990End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 24 project a daytime high near 33–34 °C amid typical late-summer subtropical high-pressure conditions, low precipitation probability, and moderate southerly flow that limits rapid cooling. This consensus from numerical weather models underpins the market’s near-certain implied probability for 33 °C, reflecting observed urban heat-island amplification and climatological baselines where August maxima frequently reach this range. Minor deviations remain possible from localized convective development or slight forecast adjustments in final model runs, yet the narrow uncertainty window on resolution day strongly favors the leading outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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