**Late-summer subtropical high pressure combined with southerly flow off the Yellow Sea is advecting warm, humid marine air across the Shandong Peninsula, supporting daytime maxima clustered around 30–33 °C.** Coastal sea breezes and 75–85 % relative humidity provide natural moderation, while partly cloudy conditions allow sufficient solar heating without extreme spikes. Recent ensemble guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models shows tight clustering in this range, aligning with Qingdao’s August climatology of 29–31 °C daily highs. Afternoon clearing could briefly push readings toward the upper end of guidance, favoring the market-leading 33 °C outcome (56 % implied probability), whereas lingering moisture or thicker cloud cover would cap values at 32 °C (27.5 %). Limited model spread keeps 34 °C or higher at just 13 %, and lower outcomes remain low-probability tail risks. The next official forecast updates and overnight model revisions will be the primary near-term catalysts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 25?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 25?
33°C 61%
34°C 20%
32°C 15%
31°C 4%
NEW
$12,523 Vol.
NEW
$12,523 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
15%
33°C
61%
34°C
20%
35°C or higher
2%
33°C 61%
34°C 20%
32°C 15%
31°C 4%
NEW
$12,523 Vol.
NEW
$12,523 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
$61 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$64 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$415 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,608 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,338 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$445 Vol.
4%
32°C
$1,719 Vol.
15%
33°C
$2,564 Vol.
61%
34°C
$1,492 Vol.
20%
35°C or higher
$1,758 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Late-summer subtropical high pressure combined with southerly flow off the Yellow Sea is advecting warm, humid marine air across the Shandong Peninsula, supporting daytime maxima clustered around 30–33 °C.** Coastal sea breezes and 75–85 % relative humidity provide natural moderation, while partly cloudy conditions allow sufficient solar heating without extreme spikes. Recent ensemble guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models shows tight clustering in this range, aligning with Qingdao’s August climatology of 29–31 °C daily highs. Afternoon clearing could briefly push readings toward the upper end of guidance, favoring the market-leading 33 °C outcome (56 % implied probability), whereas lingering moisture or thicker cloud cover would cap values at 32 °C (27.5 %). Limited model spread keeps 34 °C or higher at just 13 %, and lower outcomes remain low-probability tail risks. The next official forecast updates and overnight model revisions will be the primary near-term catalysts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$12,523End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Late-summer subtropical high pressure combined with southerly flow off the Yellow Sea is advecting warm, humid marine air across the Shandong Peninsula, supporting daytime maxima clustered around 30–33 °C.** Coastal sea breezes and 75–85 % relative humidity provide natural moderation, while partly cloudy conditions allow sufficient solar heating without extreme spikes. Recent ensemble guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models shows tight clustering in this range, aligning with Qingdao’s August climatology of 29–31 °C daily highs. Afternoon clearing could briefly push readings toward the upper end of guidance, favoring the market-leading 33 °C outcome (56 % implied probability), whereas lingering moisture or thicker cloud cover would cap values at 32 °C (27.5 %). Limited model spread keeps 34 °C or higher at just 13 %, and lower outcomes remain low-probability tail risks. The next official forecast updates and overnight model revisions will be the primary near-term catalysts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,523End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Late-summer subtropical high pressure combined with southerly flow off the Yellow Sea is advecting warm, humid marine air across the Shandong Peninsula, supporting daytime maxima clustered around 30–33 °C.** Coastal sea breezes and 75–85 % relative humidity provide natural moderation, while partly cloudy conditions allow sufficient solar heating without extreme spikes. Recent ensemble guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models shows tight clustering in this range, aligning with Qingdao’s August climatology of 29–31 °C daily highs. Afternoon clearing could briefly push readings toward the upper end of guidance, favoring the market-leading 33 °C outcome (56 % implied probability), whereas lingering moisture or thicker cloud cover would cap values at 32 °C (27.5 %). Limited model spread keeps 34 °C or higher at just 13 %, and lower outcomes remain low-probability tail risks. The next official forecast updates and overnight model revisions will be the primary near-term catalysts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions